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Why it’s NOT time to Short Apple and Visa

I could not help but read the comments on Brett’s call for shorting Visa and the other conversations around shorting Apple.  I have to disagree with both calls.  Visa is not a short because everyone thinks its going to be the next Mastercard.  Visa actually makes more money than Mastercard.   I’m wondering what the catalyst would be for Visa to drop?  I really don’t see any.  They reporting GOOD, not great numbers but the bottom line is that you really can’t fight the tape and expect to win.  I would BUY visa on a pullback.   The stock is may reach $100 in 6 months.

 Shorting Apple now may make a little more sense given the move from 120 to where we are today, but  I still contend that that is risky as well.  I think the stock will ramp to $200 until the 3G iPhone release and maybe pause there.   Fundamentally, how could you justify shorting apple now anyhow?  The company is minting money and hoarding crazy amounts of cash.  They have the best tech CEO in the Biz in Steve Jobs and everyone knows its a matter of time before the iPhone becomes the 800 pound gorilla in the cellular business.  Their PC business is taking share from other competitors at an accelerating rate.   I just do not get the short call on Apple, especially not the long-term.    



30 Responses to “Why it’s NOT time to Short Apple and Visa”


By ARL on May 5th, 2008 at 4:06 pm

As far as shorting AAPL—yes the stock may be 200 in the near term—Im not looking for the stock to drop to 160—Im looking for a day or two trade–stock way overbought–but that doesnt mean it cant get more way overbought—just lookin for a short term move on the downside–stocks dont always go up you know

By abc on May 5th, 2008 at 7:09 pm

ARL took your entry as a personal attack

By ARL on May 5th, 2008 at 9:03 pm

abc—-personal attack??? explain please

By Steve Abraham on May 6th, 2008 at 3:57 am

ARL, I understand the day trade aspect. I just think there are other stocks that would be better short candidates than Apple Computer. Good Luck and Thanks for the comments.

By ARL on May 6th, 2008 at 6:18 am

Steve–ok but that’s basically what I do for my trading–look for overbought situations and try to get a few points out of it–risky–yes…that’s how I trade
Should AAPL get oversold—I might even buy it—–same thing I did with V–shorted it and got a few points–gone— but I wouldn’t stay short in it
Oh and I did that with SOHU too and now looking at others
The best in your trading too
ARL

By ARL on May 6th, 2008 at 6:54 am

Steve–u watching AAPL??Im covering soon–thats all I was looking for—a brief healthy pullback
Think AAPL will see the old highs and I might even buy it
Thanks
ARL

By Jeffrey Austin White on May 6th, 2008 at 7:58 pm

I have been loading up on the Apple stock but not for the obvious reasons. I am a developer of Microsoft applications. Apple has just released a development environment for Leopard and i-phone. This will prove to be much more lucrative than the hardware sales and 3g appliances. Profits from this activity will not be realized until 3rd quarter 2008.

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By Alex on May 8th, 2008 at 10:23 am

AAPL formed a very defined cup and handle and broke out around $155. I dare you to short a cup and handle on good volume..

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By kaw on June 18th, 2008 at 9:47 am

The bearishness of AAPL appears to be a temporary glitch as AAPL recovers. I like to check the sentiment trend on http://www.predictwallstreet.com/forecast.aspx?symbol=aapl (you have to make a prediction first to see the graph) and to compare it with the quote. Today, the sentiment is again in the UP or bullish zone and the price took a dip this morning but is rising again. In the past, prices were rising fast when there were multiple days of bullish sentiments. I am curious what the sentiment and price will be tomorrow.

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By Jets on July 8th, 2008 at 1:19 pm

Tickermine.com revisited AT&T this week. 32 dealerships around the country were consulted and asked which phone sold best overall, which phone sold best as a music device and which is best for email? The Apple iPhone was the best-selling phone this month, according to 25% of the poll. Five people or 16% mentioned to the Nokia 6555 as a best seller, and another five people cited the Motorola RAZR2. (Last month the Blackberry was mentioned as the overall bestseller.) Other mentions this month included the Nokia 6085 (13%), the LG Shine and then the Samsung BlackJack, were each mentioned three times (9%), and the Blackberry Curve was cited twice (6%). The best phone for receiving e-mail remains the Blackberry, according to the survey. This was cited 13 times or by 41% of those polled. Next was the i-Phone (seven mentions or by 22% of those surveyed). The Palm Centro and the Pantech Duo were each mentioned by five respondents (16%) and the Nokia 3100 was mentioned twice (6%). And as for which phone was the best music device, the i-phone won hands down with 18 votes or 56% of those polled. The Sony Ericsson Walkman was cited five times (16% of respondents). The Pantech Duo got the thumbs up from three respondents (9%) and the AT&T TILT was voted best music device by 6% of the poll

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By Raj Jhaveri on October 6th, 2008 at 10:27 am

You probably want to take your decision back on the shorts. Whomever shorted visa and apple are making a killing right now.

By Tim on October 9th, 2008 at 8:57 pm

I would hold for a while before shorting or selling. I know they are still in decline but stock truth and a few other sites have them forecasted to do better (at least level off):
http://stocktruth.com/chart.php?symbol=AAPL

Also, in you like break away systems and you look at the past on these guys that have fallen before and leveled off, to just jump back up again in a few weeks…

By Active Trader on December 15th, 2008 at 9:19 am

Although I haven’t seen significant innovations from Apple, it’s dangerous because Jobs could be announcing the next big thing anytime.

By David Parizek Jr on February 19th, 2009 at 11:05 pm

WEll even though you got this one wrong, depending on time frame, wanted to thank you for this blog. It has really helped me in my trading.

-Dave Parizek Jr.

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By james moylan on April 1st, 2011 at 3:42 pm

I have a web site where I research penny stocks and stocks under five dollars. I am a astute value investor. I would like to comment about apple computer. I think the time to buy this stock has long come ane gone the time to have bought apple would have been back in 1998 when it was trading around 5 to 10 dollars not now when the price of the stock is around 350 dollars. not only is it a very bad idea to follow the crowd and fall in love with your stock. its an even bader idea to follow your stock off a cliff along with the crowd.

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