I profiled Inverness Medical back on Sept 6 when it was traded around $48 a share. A few days later a guy by the name of Jim Cramer did a whole segment on the stock. Anyhow, the stock has had a nice run since then reaching $65. The stock has pulled back close enough to the long term trend line that makes it attractive again. The same reason I suggested it in September still apply. Here is the chart:

I loaded up on a bunch of calls on Friday when I was in St.Thomas.  I am really hoping that it holds 70 and where there seems to be some good support. I am keeping a close eye on this. Any chance where my calls applicate 100% I will take the profit. I also bought a 100 shares at this price as well. Lets go back to 100! Or will the ship sink?

As everyone that has been reading this blog knows that I am a big fan of ICE, ICE is one of my Favs. It is almost at my $200 target which took longer then I expected. Well if your not on it yet, I dont think its too late.  Its not even touching overbought territory yet

On another note. I recommended RICK on FEB 17th. It has now more then Doubled. It looks overextended and once the price comes down I shall post the chart. Congrats though to who ever got into it.

Its been a while but I am back. School has been a killer and I have been in the library till 11 every night giving me no time for charts. Also I have been very distraught over the BIDU puts that I had. Cant let emotions take the best of you but sometimes they do. These couple of weeks off let me get my head straight.
Well CF is a stock a mentioned here about 30 pts back or so and I believe we can get another 30pts out of this stock in the coming months. I took a few calls today. I am going on a cruise next week so once back charts shall start flowing.

GOOD TO BE BACK

Home Depot is a stock that I have talked about before.  It appears that this stock is stuck in a downtrend and shows no signs of reversing.  Economists predict that the housing recession is going to continue into early 2009. Home Depot has struggled ever since the housing market topped in early 2006. It has also lagged LOWE’s for awhile, but LOWE’s is getting crushed as well. Here is the chart.  I think the stock moves lower.

According to Yahoo Finance Cree, Inc. develops and manufactures semiconductor materials and devices primarily based on silicon carbide (SiC), gallium nitride (GaN), and related compounds.  The charts looks to be forming a right shoulder. It hard to tell where this stock is going but if it breaks the support line again, we could see some serious downward action.  Here is the chart:

RIMM has been one of the best stocks in the market over the last couple of years. The stock now appears to be at a critical point.  It somewhat broke support today but then again most stocks got crushed.  The stock is worth watching. I’d like to see a big reversal and at the close on big volume to get me back in it.  If the stock closer lower tommorrow on big volume (I think this is likely) then RIMM is done for awhile. Trading this stock is going to be difficult because they report earnings on Dec 20.  That report may give us a better idea of where the stock is heading. Here is the chart:

Julia writes in on First Solar and wants to know if I like it better than Mastercard.  Short answer : No.  Mastercard is one favorite stocks in the market. I would not chase FSLR. It’s up from $25 to $250 this year !!!! . The stock looks toppy to me. There is a negative divergence between price action and MACD. If you look closely, the last 30 points the stock has risen the lower the MACD line. That MAY indicate the party is over. I would stay away from FSLR. If someone told me to choose the next 30 points in the stock, I would say it would be downward.  Here is this unbelievable chart:

PODD - Insulet Corporation, a medical device company, engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of insulin infusion system for people with insulin-dependent diabetes in the United States. It offers OmniPod Insulin Management System, which consists of its OmniPod disposable insulin infusion device and handheld wireless personal diabetes manager. The company’s OmniPod Insulin Management System provides with a diabetes management solution, which provides lifestyle and other benefits and to expand the use of CSII therapy. I like the chart of PODD. Steady uptrend and looks like its a buy at it current pivot point.  Probably a recession proof stock as well.

Per Yahoo Finance, Covance, Inc., a drug development services company, provides early-stage and late-stage product development services to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device industries worldwide. The stock has one of the best looking charts I’ve seen in awhile. It has not missed a beat.  This appears to be a fundamental story as well. The company has no debt and solid earnings growth. Not a bad combination. The chart below tells the story.

Well, the market is blowing up today. Every stock in the dow is up today.  Basically, the rally is being fueled by rumors of another Fed rate cut.  I think its a given the Fed will cut rates in December, the question is only by how much: .25 or .50.? Yesterday I mentioned some stock to watch. Although the buy price was not met for all of them, they are all significantly higher.  I still like the names from yesterday on pullbacks.

 I think the following stocks are buyable with tight stops:

SU - Sucor Energy - Still in Uptrend. Down near 20% from its high.

XOM - Exxon Mobil - Still in Uptrend. Bumping up against one year trend.

CBG - CB Richard Ellis - Stock is breaking out of long downtrend. MACD    turning positive. Watch for continued strength here. Stock up the last three days in volatile market.

RIMM, AAPL- Long time tech favorites look decent here. Apple rumored to sell 25 million iPods this quarter.  Apple going to crush its own higher guidance this quarter. 

VMW - Oversold. Buy at $70.

MA - Maybe a little early to buy, but I would step in around $165-170.

EBAY - Same story with MACD. Lower prices but higher MACD. Usually good indication of bottoming stock. Stock down 20% from its highs.

The US stock market and the US economy are hanging on for dear life in my opinion. It appears that the mortgage crisis combined with high oil and gas prices is going to at least slow economic growth, possible cause a severe recession. Big cap tech is no longer a safe haven unless the Fed changes it’s stance and starts to lower again.  However, if you look at the charts of Apple, Google, Rimm, VMW — they all have broken their uptrend on huge selling volume.  The only place to be long is consumer staples  - PG, JNJ, MO, KO, PEP, and even something like United Health Care.  The money has to rotate out of the big cap tech names and into these safe stocks until we get out of the woods.  If you want to speculate, then I like JASO or even wait for the VISA IPO. 

Danny Upshaw wrote in to contribute his analysis on AFSI, AmTrust Financial Services.

“AFSI, who I’ve written about before, beat estimates again by about a dime. 30cents was the highest analyst estimate, and they made 41cents. The company has been in public about about six quarters and has beaten estimates *every single quarter*. The stock has been hovering between the mid-$14’s and low $17’s. I was riding the way and buying at $14ish and selling at $16.80ish for a few weeks. They are beat up with the market right now in the low $13’s. That’s right, they beat earnings for six consecutive quarters and the day after beating earnings again, the stock is still currently down, probably because it has the word “financial” in the name. However, as I pointed in a month or two ago, they have almost no sub-prime exposure and are primarily an specialty insurer who deals with government backed securities/properties.

So far as thebulltrader.com goes, I’d recommend AFSI. At current price, the stock is probably a steal and will probably jump back to $17 soon, if not more.”

Both these stocks ive traded in the past for great profits and have sold off on the momentum. Earnings are coming up for both of them this week, Monday for CHCG.OB, and Tuesday for CHNG.OB.

CHNG made a huge run where i traded it for over 50% gain and has succumb to the inevitable profit taking tumble only to find support near its ascending trendline after falling 23% in one session on news of a private placement. The stock has rebounded and seems fairly stabilized at the moment

Here is my initial analysis of CHNG from when i first analyzed it before it made its big run:

Fundamental Analysis:

CHNG.OB is a small cap company with a current market cap of $99.5m, compared to the Oil & Gas industry’s 2.5b average cap. While its current PS ratio is trading at a higher multiple than the industry’s, the important thing to note is CHNG’s PE ratios, with trading at 13.7x multiple compared to the industry’s 17.3x PE. Even more impressive is their forecasted growth into the future with a one year forward PE of just 3.67x. For the current year, CHNG is expecting to report .39eps and a huge jump to follow in 08? with expectations of 1.12eps, and 1.39eps in 09?. Hypothetically speaking, if CHND continued on average its trading multiple of 13.7x we could expect price per share to be trading in the mid teens in 2008, if the company doesn’t run into any trouble. The financial condition also looks great here, with a high current ratio and no long term debt, making this an attractive growth stock.

I’d be more than happy to re-enter a position here if CHNG can step up to the plate and deliver us some positive results in their earnings call tuesday.

CHCG.OB is another very speculative chinese stock that looks like its on its way to becoming Chinas next electronic retail giant comparable to our Best Buy and Circuit City here in the USA. CHCG is expecting some huge growth going forward with plans to expand to 4000 stores by 2010 worth an estimated $1 billion in annual sales. Technically price has been trading in its bullish ascending channel for quite sometime and had a very bullish breakout which i believed to be a catalyst for a continued move higher though price was hammered down by dilution leading to a tumble back to the ascending support line. Price action has been pretty stagnant until friday when CHCG.OB announced that they would be announcing earnings on Monday which lead to a bullish rally making this stock look ready for a turn around. If CHCG.OB can deliver positive results monday i think it will be a turning point for this bullish stock and the negative sentiment from the dilution will be forgotten.

Heres some Fundamental Analysis from the message boards:

“CHCG is getting more and more out of the small cap category as its growing here ket. I mean this is a company that sells a lot of stuff, they’re expecting $369m in sales for this year alone, and if i recall correctly they were forecasting a billion in sales by 2010. So looking at its current sales and growth in sales $387m doesn’t look very expensive in my eyes, it doesn’t look dirt cheap, but not excessively expensive. Their P/S ratio currently is trading at 1.56x compared to the industry average of .8x. This is based on the last 4 quarters of sales of $247m and current market cap of $379

P/S = Market cap/Sales = 379m/247m = 1.56x sales

Though the more significant ratio we want to look at is the Price to earnings ratio which CHCG is trading below the industry average with a current PE of 19.34 compared to the industries 25x earnings. So CHCG looks inexpensive from this point of view especially given their steady earnings growth with a forward PE of just 11.34. So basically how we look at that forward PE is this, if price to were remain unchanged from todays price, in 1 year from now the PE ratio would be 11.34x. Which would make CHCG.OB a very attractive undervalued stock given that the industry average is 25x. But thats not likely to happen. So we would expect CHCG to rise along with its rise in earnings possibly to maintain its current conservative earnings multiple of 19x. If that were the case over the course of the next year if CHCG were to report its expected .56 eps then hypothetically CHCG should trade near 10.83. If CHCG’s momentum gained quicker which is highly possible in the result of a chart pattern breakout and began to trade at an earnings multiple comparable to the industries 25x then hypothetically price would trade around:

Eps = .56
PE = 25x

.56 x 25 = $14/share. ”

Will keep those one on close watch monday for positive results and possible re-entry.

Company Overview:
Development and commercialization of solar energy products and technologies for a wide range of applications including power production and water desalination.

· Offers building-integrated photovoltaic (PV) roofing materials for commercial, industrial, and residential markets. Marketed under the trade name SolarSave®, the product line includes roofing membranes, roofing tiles, custom architectural PV glass, and balance of systems equipment such as inverters, combiners, and accessories

· OEGY also holds an exclusive, worldwide license to a solar thermal technology called SunCone™ CSP (Concentrating Solar Power), which is currently being developed to generate potable water and distributed power

· With the acquisition of WaterEye Corporation in December 2006 , OEGY intends to also develop and commercialize utility monitoring products.

Market Cap: $71m
Shares Outstanding: 92.6m

For those who have followed my trades for some time are probably familiar with this stock as I have already analyzed and traded it previously though was shaken out by the volatility with penny stocks and was forced to sell in order to minimize downside risk. I wish I was still holding after Fridays 42% rally

Open Energy has placed a huge foot in the door with some major companies that will help expand its presence in the solar industry in the future. Being such a small company and the speculative nature of the products OEGY provides I believe this could be a huge hidden gem in the solar sector. I believe that solar tiles in the roofs of residential homes and commercial buildings have a fighting chance at becoming standard for all homes and commercial buildings as the the demand for sustainable energy is increasing heavily. Morgan Stanley estimates the solar industry will grow at a rate of 43% annually through 2010. I really like the idea of Open Energy’s products and believe this stock will not only be a great trade, but a longer term investment as well.

Partnerships:

- Partnership with Suntech Solar (nyse: STP) for the manufacture of Solarsave tiles and glass

- Agreement with the largest cement tile manufacture in the us, Eagle Roofing, to distribute products through their sales channels to major developers and roofing contractors nationwide.

Product Descriptions: Source From www.openenergycorp.com

SOLARSAVE® ROOFING TILES

Open Energy’s SOLARSAVE® Roofing Tile is a unique product that enables to maintain the natural look of your property while generating clean, safe, efficient electricity from the sun. SOLARSAVE® Roofing Membranes can be easily installed on residential, commercial, institutional, and industrial structures, making it an ideal solution for your renewable energy project.

Features & Benefits

• Easily installed using Roofing Tile Institute standards
• Robust, weatherproof, fire-rated, fully warranted
• Edge profiles naturally shed water
• Durable low voltage system is safer to install and maintain
• Modular, expandable system can be energy customized
• Snow load capacity over 200 pounds per square foot
• Wind load rating up to 125 mph with clips installed
• Class A Fire rated
• CSA certified; UL1703 listed; Class II 600VDC
• 25-year warranty to produce 80% power output
• Inverter had very high conversion ratio of AC to DC
• Comes in different colors; black, red & brown

SOLARSAVE® ARCHITECTURAL PV GLASS

Open Energy Corporation also designs and manufactures custom PV glass laminates to meet the aesthetic, performance, and structural requirements of architects and design professionals. Sizes, shapes, and design configurations can be built to match virtually any specification available today, allowing for a direct substitution for monolithic, laminated, or insulated glass panels. It is often desirable to achieve translucency in photovoltaic skylight applications. While a standard photovoltaic cell is an opaque 125 mm2 square, our cells can be arranged within a clear glass panel to provide appropriate light levels and shading coefficients. A wide variety of colors, thickness, patterns, and shapes can be produced.

SOLARSAVE® ROOFING MEMBRANES

Open Energy’s SOLARSAVE® Roofing Membrane is a unique product that enables to maintain the natural look of your property while generating clean, safe, efficient electricity from the sun. SOLARSAVE® Roofing Membranes can be easily installed on commercial, institutional, industrial, and residential structures, making it an ideal solution for your renewable energy project.

Features & Benefits

• A weather resistant, fire rated, low maintenance product
• Easily installed by roofers with no demolition or disposal costs
• 20-year warranty covers material and electrical performance
• Highest per foot power output per square foot in the industry
• Captures low light levels 2% to 5% better than glass
• Minimizes power loss from shading, debris, and soiling
• Superior aesthetics as well as performance features
• No structural reinforcement or rack mounting required
• Modular; fully scaleable and easily expandable
  

Recent Orders

Open Energy Receives $4.21 Million Order From SolarPro
Monday July 2, 9:00 am ET

Company’s SolarSave Tiles Will Be Installed in New Residential Development in Central California

SOLANA BEACH, CA–(MARKET WIRE)–Jul 2, 2007 — Open Energy Corp. (OTC BB:OEGY.OB - News), a renewable energy company focused on providing solar solutions to its residential and commercial customers, today announced a $4.21 million dollar purchase order for SolarSave® PV Tiles from SolarPro International, a solar integrator based in Sacramento, California. Open Energy’s building integrated PV tiles will be installed on approximately 375 new single-family residences in the Placer County development.

Open Energy Receives $972,000 Purchase Order From Premier Power for SolarSave(R) Roofing Membrane System
Thursday June 7, 9:00 am ET

Project Slated for Luxury Destination Resort in Napa Valley

SOLANA BEACH, CA–(MARKET WIRE)–Jun 7, 2007 — Open Energy Corp. (OTC BB:OEGY.OB - News) today announced that it has received a purchase order from Premiere Power Renewable Energy, Inc., for a photovoltaic roof valued at $972,000 for installation on the new Bardessono Inn in Napa Valley, California. The property is being built by MTM Management, LLC, one of the leading developers of premier destination resorts in North America.

Interview With the CEO:

Open Energy recently had an intriguing interview with Market News First about their company and developments. Can be heard via podcast here: http://files.mn1.com/mp3/OEGY_071307.mp3

Conclusion:
The current fundamentals of the company are nothing impressive as they lost $6.2m on sales of $1.7m on their last reported quarter. Though with their innovative products and the demand for sustainable energy into the future, I think OEGY could be a major player in the future. As its products are manufactured through the largest solar company in China and the 3^rd largest in the world, OEGY’s manufacturing capacities are nearly infinite and will be able to meet the demand for its products with ease. Open Energy further increased their potential when they teamed up with the largest cement tile roofing company in the US for product distribution. Now they’re distribution chains for their products are being brought to a vast amount of customers and I believe the orders for their products will continue to increase in $ amounts as well as frequency. The company is expecting to release its next quarterly report with the next 1.5 months, In the interview at MN1.com the CEO of OEGY.OB said we could expect to see a significant increase in sales.

Further Analysis can be found at: http://www.gaskinsco.com/linkto-oegy.shtml

Technical Analysis:

This is one of the most bullish stock charts i’ve seen in a while. The amount of volume building up to fridays breakout was quite significant which leads me to believe momentum, along with speculation, could drive this stock much higher from here. OEGY is coming off of its bottom and the momentum and speculation around Sustainable energy is bullish. 1/2 of this trade is going to be for a short term trade, the other 1/2 will probably stick around in my portfolio for a while as i think the long term outlook of this company is very bullish. Preferably i would like to purchase some shares around .70 near the midpoint of Fridays breakout candle. Though due to the momentum, we might have to settle to chase a rally tomorrow instead for a purchase.

Long at .71

Woulda Shoulda Coulda…Just my life story

The other day I bought 10 NOV 390 puts on BIDU. The very next morning it gapped up $15 to an all time high. I was sick so I bought 5 more puts. So now I would make $1500 ever point that BIDU goes under 390. This morning BIDU started to move up again and I got nervous. I sold all of my puts when the stock was at 395 only to watch it go down below 350. I woulda , shoulda and coulda made $50,000 today off that trade.

WOULDA SHOULDA COULDA….Im just sick.

VMW is at back at 100 just as I thought would have happened. Picking up some more here but keeping a close eye on it. Like I said a few weeks back, I dont trust this market.

Chuck Prince is resigning as CEO of Citigroup as effective Sunday according to the Wall Street Journal. Stock is up after hours. Citi will no doubt be the most actively traded stock on Monday. I think the stock pops.