This is why I am long on gold.

3 major gold miners report tomorrow as gold commodity trades at all-time (uninflation adjusted highs). This will be a interesting week for gold.

Disclosure: Long on gold bullion.

Maybe?! I’m talking about ticker NVR.  Per Yahoo, NVR, Inc. operates as a homebuilder in the United States. The company engages in the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, town homes, and condominium buildings under Ryan Homes, NVHomes, Fox Ridge Homes, and Rymarc Homes trade names. It sells its Ryan Homes, Fox Ridge Homes, and Rymarc Homes products primarily to first-time homeowners and first-time move-up buyers located in Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York, North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio, New Jersey, Delaware, Michigan, Kentucky, and Tennessee. The company markets its NVHomes product primarily to move-up and upscale buyers in the Washington, D.C., Maryland, Pennsylvania, and the Maryland Eastern Shore metropolitan areas. It also offers mortgage related services to its homebuilding customers, including broker title insurance; and performs title searches in connection with mortgage loan closings. The company, formerly known as NVHomes, Inc., was founded in 1979. NVR, Inc. is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.  The stock looks like its bottomed. Its down from around $850 a share to around $400. It closed today at $561.  It’s an expensive stock but its worth watching here.  A pullback to around $530-$535 may present decent risk/reward picture.

I know that I have posted this stock a few times. But I think this is a great play at the price. The stock is massively shorted right now at 25% of its float. If there next earnings are as stellar as there previous one then this stock is going to fly.(hopefully)  I see $35 as a bottom that may get retested again before $50 is taken out. Well with Blu-Ray becoming the next great thing, I want to buy more with a  sale like this.

While scanning for some “new” stocks, I came across SOL. That’s ReneSola Ltd, which trades on the NYSE. This is a recent IPO, which priced itself on January 29 at $13 per ADS share. The float for it is just 10 million shares.

Some background on SOL:

ReneSola, Ltd., through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of solar wafers and related products in the People’s Republic of China. It offers feedstock, ingots, and wafers for the solar industry. The company sells solar wafers to Chinese and international PV cell manufacturers. The Jiashan, Zhejiang company supplies thin sheets of crystalline silicon to customers including JA Solar (JASO), Motech, Solarfun (SOLF), and Suntech Power (STP). SOL primarily offers 125 mm by 125 mm monocrystalline wafers and in Q2 2007 began offering 156 mm by 156 mm monocrystalline wafers. As part of its expansion plan, SOL began producing multicrystalline wafers in Q3 2007. Solar power products that use monocrystalline cells generally yield higher conversion efficiencies. On the other hand, multicrystalline wafers are less expensive to produce and have less stringent raw material requirements. By producing multicrystalline wafers, SOL expects to realize cost synergies by utilizing some of the silicon materials reclaimable from its monocrystalline wafer production. SOL operates one of the largest solar wafer manufacturing plants in China. The co has annual ingot manufacturing capacity of 378 MW. The co plans to increase that to 645 MW by the end of 2008. The co differneitates itself by using proprietary technology to manufacture solar wafers primarily from reclaimables such as broken wafers and broken cells that are difficult to process but less expensive. SOL believes this is a major cost advantage over many of its competitors who rely on virgin polysilicon sourced from the spot market. SOL says its solar wafers are comparable in quality and performance to those made from virgin polysilicon. SOL has grown quickly since it began making solar wafers in 2005. The co is profitable and posted revs of US$152.9 mln for the 9 mos ended Sep 30, up 194% yr/yr.

SOL is the CHEAPEST solar play out there based on PE ratio. Current earnings run rate of about $1 per share (based on Q4 2007 projections of $.23 - $.27) and should earn $2 per share in 2008. If SOL had same forward PE as JASO it would be valued near $60!

Cash and inventories at about $4 per share (ADS).
SOL fair value = $4 + 30 PE X $1 current earnings run rate = $34

I think that when SOL gets noticed by the bigger players, it has a good chance to run into the $18-20 area. This company went public when the markets were not in a good mood with the solar stocks. But in recent days with the great earnings of FSLR and SPWR, these stocks are again starting to flourish

In Wednesday’s market, SOL gained over 15% on its second heaviest volume day since going public. Although the chart is “very young”, this is what we see.

Take a look at charts of JASO, AKNS, SOLF, STP, YGE and ASTI. Notice how they “suddenly exploded” upwards? I have a feeling that SOL will be doing this sometime very soon. With a float of only 10 million shares, this stock can move very fast.

Please do your own due diligence before buying any shares of SOL. I initiated my own position on Wed. Will be adding on, as it keeps climbing.

I wanted to post this chart a few weeks back when the VIX spiked to 37.50. I was going to state that the bottom was probably hit for the overall market. Well I would have been right so far. The panic and fear finally kicked in that day. Too bad the site was not working because catching that bottom could have provided huge profits.

Wow, every stock that I held has crashed including the Bull Trader  site for a while. Well I am still in DRYS and in the next 6months I foresee a run up in price followed by the long awaited split. I am very bullish along with solar. The DRYS stock chart looks bullish all over and congrats to all who got in at a steal with a  price at $50 a share.

Titan Machinery owns and operates full service agricultural and construction equipment stores in North America. The Company also sells and rents agricultural and construction equipment, sell parts, and service the equipment in the areas surrounding their stores. AGRICULTURAL-related industry is extremely hot right now. Look at POT, CF, MOS charts as an example.

TITN is a recent IPO, and it has a float of only 6 million shares. There is a very tiny short-interest base, which tells us that this stock has a lot of investors that are not doubting the company. There have been NO insider sales at all, since the lock-up period of 180-days doesn’t expire until June 2008.

The chart is very good (not overbought):

I have initiated a small position earlier today and will look for a re-test of the $18.50 level soon. TITN very well reach the low $20’s in the not-too-distant future.

Please do your own due diligence before buying any shares of TITN.

Texas Hold’em is inarguably the modern king of the casino. The game’s popularity has skyrocketed in recent years due to the increase in the number of tournaments, an explosion in the size of the events, and ubiquitous television of coverage of these contests. Many newcomers have taken up the game in the hopes of striking it rich and a lucky few have actually succeeded. Discovering the secrets of these poker savants will not only help you at the table, but could also lead you to an equally rewarding career as a forex trader.

Playing the stock market is a common pastime for professional poker players, but the forex market is where their Hold’em skills can really help you dominate the table. The forex market is the quick, agile, and often skittish cousin of the stock exchange, and it takes a certain mind-set and unique array of capabilities to master it. Take these six qualities from the casino to the forex markets and you’ll beat the house every time.

1. Maintain a long-term focus: Sorry to burst your bubble, but playing to get rich quick is not the way to succeed as a professional Texas Hold’em player. And unfortunately for those of you looking to retire tomorrow, the same goes for forex trading. Even small victories, if they are frequent and consistent, can help you pile up chips as well as pips. Focus on your long-term goals and you will be able to make a rewarding career out of either profession.
2. Develop an ability to cope with loss: Even the best poker players lose as often as they win, and professionals must learn to endure losing streaks that can last for months. In addition, one miscalculated bet or misread of an opponent can take a huge hit out of your stack. Forex traders, no matter how well-reasoned their decision-making process, can also endure significant damage to their finances when a currency pair bucks the trends and makes up its own mind to defy your predictions. Both card sharks and currency traders need to have confidence that their logic is sound and will eventually reap rewards, even as they fight their way back from a staggering blow.
3. Become a human rulebook: A Hold’em player must be able to recite the general rules of the game by heart and be well-versed in the specific regulations of any given tournament if they have any hopes of coming out on top. Likewise, a Forex trader must learn all of the regulations and techniques available to a currency trader, such as short selling or going long on a currency pair, in order to be successful.
4. Model yourself as the decider: An adept Hold’em player can think on his feet, applying knowledge quickly and making swww.thebulltrader.comfashion. Forex trading requires identical skills as bid/ask prices can change in the blink of an eye. Hesitate for just a moment, and you might soon be waving goodbye to a healthy profit.
5. Turn into a cocky bastard: Extreme confidence is required to go all-in with a couple of rags in the hole, but sometimes you must do so to steal a pot and turn the tide of a game your way. Texas Hold’em is not a game for the faint of heart, and neither is forex trading. Playing the currency markets requires guts and a firm belief in yourself. If you don’t have what it takes to risk riding your chosen currency pair to the brink of disaster, then you’ll be out of the game long before the big payouts arrive.

Heather Johnson is a freelance finance and economics writer, as well as a regular contributor for CurrencyTrading.net, a site for currency trading and forex trading information. Heather welcomes comments and freelancing job inquiries at her email address heatherjohnson2323@gmail.com .

Can I interest anyone in a investment that pays about a 13%  dividend, is half as volatile as the average US stock, and is making new 52-week highs and looks to go higher? Sounds pretty good, huh?  Well, the investment I’m talking about is symbol PBT.  Per Yahoo: Permian Basin Royalty Trust holds overriding royalty rights in mineral properties in the United States. It holds a 75% net overriding royalty interest in Waddell Ranch Properties located in Crane County, Texas; and a 95% net overriding royalty interest in Texas Royalty Properties in Texas. The company was founded in 1980 and is based in Dallas, Texas. Permian Basin Royalty Trust operates as a subsidiary of Burlington Resources Oil & Gas Company LP.  I like this stock as a recession play.  Here is the chart:

One of the few stocks that look good to me is an ETF called UNG (United States Natural Gas). This is basically an exchanged traded fund for Natural Gas. I like the Natural Gas play.  According to some experts, the natural gas play will come to fruition later in the year. Well, to me, it looks like the move may already be happening now. The 1 yr UNG looks like the stock has bottomed an wants to move higher.  Notice the bullish divergence between the stock price and the MACD. Also, the trend is looks bullish. I think UNG is an ETF to keep an eye on for awhile.

DROOY made a solid 17% rally today on increased volume breaking out from an ascending wedge pattern placing this stock on the map for technical analysis breakout buyers. With a forward earnings estimates of .51 and the Gold industry trading at an average earnings multiple of 42.28x earnings, this sets DROOY with an attractive fair value share price among its peers around double from its current pps 11.35 at (42.28 x .51 = 21.56). Although with Gold contracts looking extremely over extended its a tough decision to buy as gold is gonna hit a top sooner or later and endure a correction, which will have an impact on gold stocks, likely similar to the solar correction we are currently witnessing. No plan for buying at the moment but this stock looks bullish and fundamentals are in our favor. Lets feel this one out a little bit longer.

More Info: TheTechnicalTrader.net

For the last month, our server has been having a slew of nightmarish database issues. Our tech guy fixed all the problems, so now things up and running flawlessly again!

Sorry about the down-time.

For some reason i’ve had a mental block on buying any solar stocks when they had been posting huge gains. Well lets just say i’m stupid, but mental block sounds a little better for my own self-esteem though haha

SOLF definitely looks the best to me for having more room to run compared to some of the other big solar names out there on a valuation and forward growth basis. Lets take a look at some of the other forward P/E’s.

FSLR - 134x
STP - 41x
JASO - 36x
TSL - 19.44x
** SOLF - 5x **

So as you can see SOLF on a forward earnings basis is by far the most attractive of any of these solar stocks that have been hot on the prowl lately. Other active solar stocks such as ASTI, CSUN, and AKNS are all projected to be unprofitable in the upcoming year though are moving towards profitability so all are probable to move north along with the industry in general that is growing 30-40% annually.

Here are the analyst estimates from yahoo finance for price targets:

PRICE TARGET SUMMARY

The Average estimate for the upcoming 2008 projects SOLF to report a staggering 6.88 eps on revenues of $4.33 billion. The industry average for the semiconductors P/E ratio is currently trading at 26x earnings. For SOLF to be fairly valued among its peers we could theoretically say SOLF should be trading around $178.88/share found by multiplying the industries PE by the 6.88 forward earnings estimates. Who knows, given some time we might see it trade that high. But as a short term trader this upward valuation appears to gives us a prime opportunity to capitalize on short term momentous gains.

Technically i was hoping to have a chance to buy some shares on more of a pullback to the 13ema but the momentum in solar and the under valuation of SOLF robbed me of that opportunity as of yet. Today SOLF broke out of its short term pennant continuation pattern suggesting a further move to the upside and continuation of this bullish trend.

When comparing SOLF to its peers it looks like its the cheapest and smartest route to take if your gonna diversify your portfolio within the solar stock industry. I took today opportunity on the technical breakout to purchase some shares at 34.25.

HAUP made an impressive move from a technical standpoint today up over 17% on heavily increased volume to breakout from a double bottom pattern in the face of the bear making it appear that this stock is back in favor of the bulls. HAUP reported an increase of 58% in net income over fy 06 with .39 eps excluding tax deference and fully diluted compared to .24eps in 06′. HAUP has been growing at a substantial rate as the previous year of 05′ they reported just .14eps fully diluted. HAUP also stated that they have purchased 142k shares on the open market in the third and fourth quarter as part of a stock repurchase plan.

At the current price of 4.96 HAUP is undervalued as its trading below the Computer Peripherals industry average P/E of 21x earnings while HAUP is at a low 13.4x earnings giving them a current fair value around $8/share. As HAUPS earnings grew 71% in 06′ and 58% in 07′, I think we could conservatively say that HAUP will be able to grow at least 40% into 2008 which would give them an estimated .51 eps for 2008 or a very attractive forward P/E ratio of 9.72x compared to the 21.7x average multiple. Given this information we could give HAUP a future fair value within its industry around $11.06/share which entail upside potential of 123% given todays closing price.

Overall HAUP looks like its in a position to make a continuation on the long side with multiple aspects for speculation including a bullish breakout, positive growing fundamentals, low valuation, and a stock repurchase program. I want to be long HAUP

More Discussion at the HAUP message board at TheTechnicalTrader.net

PBR has been on fire lately. I was a buyer on Friday and and will buy some more once the trendline gets hit. I like this stock and so do alot of other people.

UPDATE : SIGM……Closed above $50. I am still in this stock holding a loss but will double down at this level on Monday if opportunity presents itself.

Tax season is here, and could not be worse. I have traded over 1000 times this year and was told that I have to hand write each trade on the schedule D. Then someone told me about Tradelog. I use scottrade and Interactive brokers. If anyone out there has ever used tradelog for these brokers please leave a comment. Will it do everything I need with a few clicks here and there? If anyone has any other suggestions please leave them. Im sure other people will be interested as well.

Once again I must repeat stock charts.  On March 29, 2007 I posted this chart when it was trading at $27. It then ran up to $70. Well the stock pulled back and I bought more at this level. I will keep an eye on it if it decides to break the $50 level. Im hoping a retest of old highs in the up comming year.

MBIA is in the business of insuring mortgage backed securities. UH OH! Well, Im not sure if Im late to this short party but I dont think MBIA is going anywhere but downward. The stock was around $65 around October and has since fallen off a cliff. Yesterday it closed around 18.63 after gapping down earlier in the week on volume of 53 million shares, nearly 10 times the average volume. I’d still like to short this stock on any upward movement. I really think this company is in for a tough 2008. Cramer has mentioned that a lot of companies will be going under. Could this be one of them? Go Giants !!

Picked up a few hundred shares of N at 35.00

Keeping a tight stop loss at todays low of 34.34

(update - sold all my position at average price of 37.84

Chart looks great. I love gap ups as everyone knows. I really really really believe that this stock will be trading above 65 in the next 30 days. If not, then it should come down to 55 where I will back up the truck like Cramer would say. Lets keep an eye on it.

Has anyone seen RICK???? Geez, charted it at 10