DNDN Stock Analysis

DNDN stock (DENDREON CORPORATION), has been posting a record rally for the last few days. Fueled by an FDA vote for its cancer drug, the stock has been skyrocketing.

I’ve been doing some research on this stock, and I found a very valuable analysis of DNDN at Technicator.NET. Here is a snippet of the analysis.

They expect up to $500 million in sales per year if this is successful (expected date of approval is some time in 2010). This means that 0.3 * $500MM = $150MM in expected cashflow was anticipated by the drug Provenge. Now, it is about 0.6 * 500MM = $300 million. In the very short term, the stock price should be adjusted to about 100% then the average in the recent months. That puts it to 2 * 4.59 = $9.18.

Technicator valuates DNDN stock at

$11.80 (conservative valuation) to $23.87 (aggressive valuation)

Go read the rest of Technicator’s Dendreon valuation. It’s a realy great writeup, and Frank really hit a home run with this stock pick.

Cal @ ChartSetups also has a valuation on DNDN if Provenge is approved.