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Archive for April, 2008




Shorting V

I am taking a short position in V at $77.00. My stop is right above the high of the day.



USO Stock Chart (Short Oil?? Call me crazy)

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As we all know, oil has been on a monster run. Looking at this chart, I see a great opportunity to make money on a short position once this stock reaches $100. According to the chart, if this stock reaches $100, we should see a correction worth a few points or so. I really hope it gets to $100 because I am going to buy alot of puts and try to cash in. So call me crazy, but this stock is about to be shorted!



Throwing out the Chart on AMZN

I like AMZN at these levels.  I think the stock got sold off after earnings that were really good.  I like the AMZN play going into the second half of the year.  With gas prices expected to reach $4-$5/gallon, I think a lot more people will think twice about going to the malls 10 times or more during the holiday season.  I think AMZN benefits from this.  AMZN is still growing and is a profitable company.  Higher gas prices I think is another reason why AMZN looks good here going into the second half of the year.



Walters Industries

Per Yahoo:  Walter Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides a line of products and services, including coal and natural gas, furnace and foundry coke, slag fiber, mortgage financing, and home construction worldwide.   They announce earnings on May 1.   This stock chart is unbelivable for this market.  It has been in an uptrend for awhile.  I keep waiting for a decent pullback but its not happening.  Here is the 1 yr chart.

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Mastercard Again

Just a quick reminder that Mastercard, one of my personal favorites, reports earnings on Monday April 28.



D R Horton

Yeah, I said it. DHI reports earnings on May 6.  They will probably be dismal. Technically, the stock doesn’t look bad.  The stock may have bottomed and is now forming an ascending triangle.  Supposedly,  DHI is a well managed home builder who has the financial strength to manage thru the depression in the housing market.  Anyhow, this stock may need to be watched over the next few weeks.   Here is the 6 month chart:

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EMC

The beaten-down-tech-stocks-that-might-be-recovering theme continues with EMC.  The stock has been halved recently.  Yes, they are subject to a slowing economy but that isn’t going to last forever.  I think the stock is attractive at these levels.  The company is a leader in its field and continues to make money.  It also holds a large portion of VMW, a former tech IPO darling who has also gotten crushed recently.  The chart looks like EMC will move higher. 

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Broadcom

BRCD is a long time tech company that has recently gotten crushed, plain and simple.  The stock was riding high last year when it reported poor numbers and then it was game over.  Well, looks like Broadcom isn’t dead yet.  The stock has broken out of a 6 month downtrend.  The uptrend is strong based upon the ADX reading of 31.   BRCM has had an orderly recovery over the last month.  I have no price target on the stock and have not researched earnings releases, etc. but in terms of the trend, I don’t think it going back to the previous March lows. I think BRCM is a good risk on a pullback.

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Covance

Yahoo Profile of CVD:  Covance, Inc., a drug development services company, provides early-stage and late-stage product development services primarily to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device industries worldwide.  This stock has been a big winner in the biotech area.  Cramer gave it a buy signal several months ago before the market correction.  Technically the stock may be at a crossroads.  It has challenged the 200 day MA a couple of times now.  The stock I think will remain around current levels until quarterly earnings release on April 28.  I’m not sure if I would take a position prior to earnings but I think the report will give a hint as to whether the stock totally breaks its uptrend or we are just in a correction and the stock moves higher from here.  Here is the chart.

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RIMM

RIMM is a stock most people know.  They make the Blackberry devices that so many business types carry around.  The stock was a stellar performer in 2007 however experienced a substantial correction this year in sympathy with the entire market.  Looks like RIMM may stake claim along with Apple and Google as the resilient tech leaders on the Nasdaq later this year.  The stock has no exposure to the subprime meltdown and recently reported a solid quarter. The stock has formed a base and is challenging its old highs.  I think RIMM is worth watching.

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Cat Stock Chart

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This chart looks fairly decent. After almost a year we are testing a new high. The chart is telling me that we are going higher. We may retrace down to $80 before heading back up. I am taking a small position now and reloading if we get to $80



Turning $5,000 into $400,000..UNREAL

I was contemplating it all day. To take options in Goog or not prior to earnings. I ended up playing the safe side and taking no risk at all. I am kicking myself now. If you were on margin with $5,000, you would have $10,000 in buying power. If you would have thrown it all into Goog April 500 call options it would have turned into almost half a million!

These plays happen a few times a year. The last time I actually did get into it but sold early and missed out on several tens of thousands of dollars. It was the day where bidu gapped up and fell about 60pts. I had bought 15 puts when the stock gapped up and sold way to early. I will never forget that day.

If anyone has been very efficient with buying or selling calls or puts leave some comments because Im always looking for new strategy’s.



Resistance Broken!

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Today was a good day in the market. As you can see from the chart, we finally broke a 4 month resistance. We have been having higher lows as well. This is a great thing today and hopefully we will continue the move up. Congrats to all who got into MELI.  Up about 7pts from the post.



Best looking chart seen in a while (MELI Stock Chart)

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I think this chart looks gorgeous. The one thing that i dont like is that it closed around its resistance the past few days. The macd is looking great and the RSI. There is an obvious uptrend as well. I think this chart looks great. I have taken a position in it on Friday and looking to add more.



WSCI - WSI Industries Inc

WSCI has a float of only 2.6 million shares. There are no covering analysts. There has been no insider selling on the open market since July 2007.

A little about WSCI: WSI Industries, Inc. engages in the precision contract metal machining business in the United States. It offers metal components in medium to high volumes requiring tolerances in accordance with customer specifications. WSI Industries offers its products and services primarily to the aerospace/avionics/defense industries, recreational vehicles markets, and computer components and bioscience industries.

The WSCI chart story:

Very bullish on all fronts. Looks like $11-$12 formed base is the longer-term support. P&F is giving a bullish target of: $23.50

The combination that WSCI is in the extremely hot “metals” sector (look at competitor charts of VMI, SCHN, RS) and the future IBD100 exposure could result in a $16-$17 near-term target. Also the fact that since January 1, 2008 WSCI has climbed from $5 to now over $13 and NO insider has sold any shares is telling us that they think that WSCI has more upside.

Please do your own due diligence before buying any shares of WSCI.



Resistance Holding up

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Resistance seems to be holding strong as pointed out in the chart I posted last week. There is a small trend line forming from March that may help us time the market a little better. It would be nice to see the trend line hold and the resistance to be broken.



Dont fight the trend. (MOS Stock Chart)

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You know what the saying is. Dont fight the trend and the trend for MOS is up.  This chart looks great and a sale at $100 is always possible in the near future. It is not overbought. The only thing to look out for is the MACD looks bearish. It went up $10.00 today so lets just keep this on our radar for a while.



UTVG - Universal Travel Group

I usually stay away from stocks that trade under $3, but one just caught my eye. It is Universal Travel Group, ticket symbol: UTVG

Brief Description:
Universal Travel Group, through its wholly owned subsidiary, Shenzhen Yu Zhi Lu Aviation Service Company Ltd. (YZL), provides reservation, booking, travel and tourism services throughout China. The company’s primary offerings include domestic and international air ticket booking, hotel booking, leisure tourism packaging, restaurant booking for individuals, groups and corporations, and air cargo transportation. Shenzhen Yu Zhi Lu is one of the travel agency in Shenzhen, China. The company has eight company owned reservation office locations, 103 franchised locations and a call center facility. Located in the city of Shenzhen, Universal Travel Group targets the business and leisure traveler. The Company serves those traveling to and from mainland China, as well as the tourist markets of Taiwan, Macau and Hong Kong. The Company has partnerships with Chinese domestic and international airlines, including Iberia, Virgin Atlantic, Turkish Airlines and Swissair.

Basically, UTVG is the second best travel agency in China after Ctrip.com (symbol is CTRP).

The float is 33 million shares. 2007 EPS is .26 cents per share.

The company earlier today report their earnings in a 10-K, and they have showed very impressive growth from 2006-2007:

Highlights:
Margins: Up 15% (2006: 54%; 2007: 62%)
Revenue: Up 67% (2006: 10 million; 2007: $16.7 million)
Income: Up 67% (2006: $5.4 million; 2007: $9.2 million)

They are now trading at 1.2X sales, which is almost unheard of.

Here is the key – Although they have reported their earnings earlier today in their 10K, they have not released the PR yet. Also, they have a CC call on April 1 at 8:00am EST and will be presenting at the Brean Murray Investor presentation on April 3.

The chart looks like if there is a close above 1.57 (10-day), it may run-up to the 1.90 level, with 2.20 being the hard resistance.

The MACD has started to turn positive and RSI is starting to climb.

This is a risky stock, but remember this. If it goes from 1.60 to 1.90, you have a 20% profit.

Please do your own due diligence. I have initiated a small position today.