This article from Business 2.0 speculates that Google may be getting ready to launch GoogleNet, a nationwide WiFi service. This would be really, realy, big. Plus, the article is pretty convincing too.

It would obviously cost a ton of money to bring about nationwide WiFi coverage, but just think of how lucrative such a venture would be. Even if Google charged for such a service, I would definitely pay for it because of how cool it is.

AND, considering the recent emergence of Google Talk and the popularity of Skype (an awesome VoIP telephony service), imagine how hard celluar and land-line telecom companies could get hurt. If there really existed a nationwide WiFi service, that means I could throw away my cell phone and just walk around calling people for FREE with a VoIP compatible portable phone connected to GoogleNet. Seriously, the future of telecom lies in VoIP and WiFi. I wouldn't be surprised if VoIP mobile phones became the norm in 10 years.

The article also mentions that Google would be able to track GoogleNet users by their location. This adds a new dimension to ad-targeting. For instance, if I'm walking around Berkeley and I get hungry, I can just call up Google on my VoIP phone (Google has a beta voice search program in development) and ask for food places, and Google would be able to couple my geographical location with my search query to send me advertisements from nearby restuarants.

Just think how much advertisers would pay Google for such precise ad-targeting.

I'm amazed that Google continues to innovate and grow so rapidly. In a few months, the $280 pricetag on Google stock is probably going to look dirt cheap.

on august 8th, i made a post about ELN lifting off for no apparent reason. the chart is reposted again on the left. i was confused at the time, because no news had come out, yet someone was desparately buying/covering in huge blocks.  

10 hours later, though, ELN and BIIB announced an official tysabri update and the stock jumped 15% when the markets opened.

looking back, its OBVIOUS someone with deep pockets knew that ELN and BIIB would be holding a conference call on august 9th before the open.

who knew? who was behind those suspicious transactions? isn't this kind of trading illegal? woudn't it be pretty easy for the SEC or the NASD to pinpoint the person or institution behind those trades? why haven't they done anything about this?

this is just another example of how heavily the odds are stacked against us on the market. wall street crooks are bribing doctors for information, trading on insider information, and theyre getting away with it! instead of going after smalltimers like martha stewart, the SEC needs to go after the real criminals.

the good thing, though, is that i'm learning to play the game now. for instance, from now on, if i ever see ELN's stock move like the way it did on august 8th, i'm going to immediately buy everything in sight without hesitation.

-JW

on friday, i jumped back into ELN with a purely speculative position because of some new information that i picked up. i came across several posts on the yahoo msg board stating that tysabri patients are known to relapse 6 months after treatment is halted. i verified this information by searching through ThisIsMS, a multiple sclerosis community which is pretty unbiased.

in this article, the author states that: "Previous studies (Phase II) showed that patients who were taken off of Tysabri treatment had relapses begin recurring after about 6 months– though there was no rebound above the level seen in the placebo patients. Therefore, the FDA will theoretically be aware that MS patients in the Tysabri trials before the marketing suspension are reaching the point where they should begin relapsing. As such, there is a sliver of hope that re-dosing of former Tysabri clinical trial patients could begin by early September 2005. To be clear– This is SPECULATION. However, note that it is easier to restart clinical trials then it is to re-introduce the drug to the general market."

this is interesting. the 1808 trials were suspended around february 28th. today is august 6th, a little bit more than 5 months since tysabri was pulled. august 28 will mark 6 months since tysabri infusions were halted.

both elan and biogen made it very clear in the Q2 conference calls that they plan to resume clinical trials for patients who are at high risk. therefore, if the FDA's interest is to put patients first, there is a chance that they will try to resume trials before the august 28th. the reasoning is that the FDA will be criticized if they delay the resumption of trials if patients in the 1808 study relapse since the FDA (according to ThisIsMs) is aware of the 6-month relapse statistic.

of course, like i said, this is highly speculative, but according to elan/biogen, its really just a matter of weeks before trials resume. i'm not sure if trials will just restart all of a sudden, or if eln/biogen will need to submit any formal requests/data before the FDA gives an OK.

i was burned by this stock last week when i was speculating on their Q2 CCs, so i'll be speculating carefully. good luck.

DISCLAIMER: I personally hold long positions in ELN, and this post is purely speculative.

i'm getting tired of rollercoaster biotech stocks, so lately i've been trying to learn about oil. oil is still trading near $60, and i'm going to try to see if theres anyway i can make some money in this sector.

in the long run, what it comes down to is whether oil prices in the coming years will make $60/barrel look expensive or cheap. i have no idea on how to trade futures, so i'll be doing some indepth fundamental research on smallcap oil stocks in the next couple weeks.

in fact, i've spent the last hour checking out a company which specializes in oil exploration. i'm not going to post up the chart until monday's open, however, because i have to see how the stock opens tomorrow to get a better idea of the risk/benefit assessment before i establish a position. in the meantime, you can check out ABLE and GEOI which are popular oil stocks for short-term traders. also, i found FickleTrader's chart on XOM to be pretty interesting as well.

anyway, since i don't understand oil at all, i've been reading this website which talks about how oil drilling works. i also read about how gas prices work, since i've always been curious. its a pretty useful read and theres a lot of other articles to read for fun on the website.

awhile ago, i heard that toyota is going to start making hybrid camrys. this is going to be big for toyota and even bigger for companies who are contracted to provide batteries and hybrid components for the car.

i really think that toyota is going to sell a ton of hybrid camrys. judging by the number of toyota prius cars that are around, its obvious that people like hybrid cars. as long as the hybrid camry can be competitively priced below $25K, i really think that they'll be a hit.

who will be supplying the major hybrid components for the camry? i couldnt find a clear and precise answer online, but the battery makers that came up were matsushita and sanyo. i also read that ENER is a big player in hybrid technology. they have a history of financial shortcomings, but businessweek's take on ENER seems positive. i'll be watching ENER more closely from now on.

any other ideas on how to cash in on hybrid technology?

UPDATE (6:51am PST): so, basically kelly martin tells us that tysabri will be back…. and that 1808 trials could restart at any time… and the stock drops?

UPDATE (12:44am PST): i'm disappointed with the Q2 financials. prialt sales seem to be lagging. but, its not really going to affect shareprices. everyone expected eln to post an increased loss this quarter b/c of tysabri. also, no one really expects much out of prialt anyway.

one thing however, that i want to mention, thats relevant to share price. i was glad to see that shane cooke reiterated that elan is still on track to achieve breakeven EBITDA by the end of 2005. at the moment, the euro exchanges are both trading sideways, both with low volume, so it appears that shareholders are hanging on, waiting to hear from kelly martin in the conf call.

good thing though, i was reading through the NCB and Davy's Stockbrokers reports on yahoo (courtesy of 'paddystocks') and their takes on the Q2 financials are way more upbeat than mine.
theres a good chance i'll be up all night studying, so i'll to recap the confcall before the market opens.

—————–

i didnt realize that ELN won't be releasing Q2 financials until irish time, so check back 11:30pst tonight for an update. however, the main event will be the conference call which takes place 8:30am EST. the stock had wild swings today, and i managed to add to my positions, but i have to admit, i'm pretty nervous about tomorrow. oh well, i've placed my bets on tysabri, and i'm hoping for the best.

by the way, tomorrow (july 28), the new england journal of medicine will be officially publishing in print its research/editorial on Tysabri. i dont really understand the scientific material in the research papers, but if you do, you might want to check it out. im curious why BIIB and ELN held their conference calls 1 day apart this quarter…

UPDATE: look at the July 28th publication of the NEJM. it was just released 10 min ago on their site. look for the tysabri articles.

another point that i forgot to mention in yesterdays biogen call is that Elan and Wyeth may be looking to expand the drug manufacturing facility in Athlone. elan and wyeth have been in the news for their alzheimer's drug AAB-001 which just recently entered phase2 FDA trials, so we should expect to hear some developments on that as well.

finally, ever since Q1, ELN has been in the news for its nanocrystal deals with other pharma companies. i expect to hear updates on that area as well, but of course, whats ultimately going to move ELN's stock tomorrow is tysabri progress and updates from shane cooke on their break-even EBITDA guidance.

i'm listening to the biogen Q2 call right now. there are no material developments, but the executives are very upbeat about the reviews. jim mullen, the CEO, said that it is too early to make any conclusions, but that the MS portion of the review is almost complete. i assume that the crohns patient reviews are the holdup. he has reiterated that reviews should be done "by the end of summer." jim mullen also stated that studies on PML have been very fruitful and that onset of PML can be detected and managed. the important inference to make here is that there have been no new confirmed PML cases!

also, biogenidec is continuing to fund development on the high titer process for tysabri, which allows higher production capacity for the drug. according to the financial officer, peter, "we are assuming that tysabri is only temporarily suspended".

the KEY point that one of the executives brought up is the restart of tysabri trials. he stated that in the coming weeks, biogen/elan could be in talks with the FDA and EU regulatory agencies to restart tysabri trials for MS patients. he is most likely referring to a restart of the tysabri 1808 ms trials.

i continue to be very upbeat on the future of tysabri, and i'm looking forward to ELN's call on thursday.

Significant Q/A Session Information
-Someone asked biogen to confirm that there are 3 cases of PML, but biogen refused to comment because it is too early to make conclusions from the safety evaluations. Instead, he reiterated that Biogen intends to push the FDA and EU regulatory agency to allow MS Tysabri trials to restart.
-The expenses associated with developing the high-titer process will create some additional charges in Q3, but they will be "continuing to produce Tysabri throughout the year."
-Tysabri's sales team has been temporarily reassigned to pitch Avonex, but the sales force for Tysabri is still availible for the relaunch of Tysabri.
-The executives made fun of the Boston Globe and WSJ during the call (they reported a 4th and 5th 'case' of PML last month).
-Clinical trials might restart before commerical relaunch of Tysabri. Resuming clinical trials is more simple FDA-wise than a commercial relaunch because of potential labeling issues.
-FINALLY!! THE END OF SUMMER HAS BEEN DEFINED! The exec during the Q/A threw out the date September 21st as their definition of the "end of summer."
-"Have you guys sent the data to the FDA necessary to take the hold off trials" *silence* "No." *next question*.

-JW

in 2004, if i had taken 100K and stashed it away in HANS, i would be a young millionaire right now. in the time span of about 1.5 year, the price of HANS stock skyrocketed from $10 to almost $100. however, the reason im talking about their stock today is to point out that the price of their stock is increasing at a an unsustainable parabolic rate.

parabolic stocks are pretty rare, especially when they can sustain themselves for years. nevertheless, im sure everyone has seen a parabolic stock before. you can see a ton of them in fact, if you look up all the tech companies that got hit in ~2000 when the dotcom bubble burst. i'm not going to bother posting graphs of companies hit during the dotcom bubble though, because those examples are simply TOO extreme.

instead, i invite you to look at this graph of EBAY in late 2004 when the stock exhibited parabolic growth. you can see the 4 consolidation bases referenced to in this site. briefly after the 4th base, EBAY announced 2005 growth projections that were not in line with the company's previous explosive expansion.

investors got nervous and the $60 pricetag on the stock became unsustainable because of EBAY's belief that their continued growth would be questionable in 2005. whats funny is that immediately after the news, a lot of analysts STILL reiterated their $65 target price for EBAY, trapping a lot of unsuspecting retail investors in the impending crash. thanks a lot, analysts. (what exactly are they paid to do?)

now back to hansen's… hansen's is a great company. i really like their drinks and i like how they've diversified and expanded their product pipeline. im not saying that HANS is going to suddenly crash, because i'm not qualified to make such bold statements (dont take investment advice from a college kid). also, i can't really imagine HANS tumbling down that drastically since the company isn't over-hyped by the media the same way that techs were hyped in 2000. perhaps a noticable pullback followed by a prolonged period of consolidation? i dunno, but i'd definitely like your thoughts on what you think will happen.

what i want you to take away from this article is that stocks cannot continue to grow parabolically forever unless if they can continue to deliver exponentially better quarterly results every single quarter.

-JW

My last post was regarding the efficacy of the Starbuck's franchise. John Tait, aka Fickle Trader, was kind enough to post a chart for me under the comments column of my post. While analyzing this chart, my fellow writer, jwu, suggested the possibliity of Elliot Waves in the SBUX trend.

I did some research on the idea of Elliot Waves and this is what I came with. Essentially, this wave theory states that the market, as well as stocks, move in a wave-like pattern. There are two phases, where it either goes up or down in an alternating pattern. Each phase consists of 5 seperate "waves" as it moves to its eventual low/high. For more information regarding this subject, go here.

Although not as well-versed in the theory as many people out there, I believe there is an aparent wave trend in the SBUX trend line. Following the chart within the last year, it seems that there have already been 7 seperate phases, 4 of them downwards (blue) and 3 of them upwards (red). From what I can tell, it seems SBUX is following an upward trend, currently on the 3rd wave of the phase. If I'm correct, look for this stock to hit an eventual high within the next month.

If anyone has further suggestions or corrections regarding the subject, feel free to leave a comment or email me. That's all for now. Good luck and happy trading.

-KW

on february 28th, elan and biogen idec pulled tysabri from sales and clinical trials. 2 patients who had been taking a combination of avonex and tysabri (avonex is an ms treatment by biogen) developed PML, a rare disease that causes destruction of brain tissue. since then, i've been dilligently following the developments as the two companies review the drug for a possible reintroduction to the market.

my opinion is that the situation is greatly misunderstood by investors because of prejudiced coverage by the media and institutions. the purpose of this post is to put into perspective what has happened and for me to provide commentary to help you understand what is really going on.

PML CASE #3
during the sgcowen health conference in mid-march, ceo kelly martin estimated that reviews would be completed by "the end of summer." at this time, the stock was trading around $7. on march 31st though, the stock tumbled from ~$7 to ~$3 overnight (taking me down with it). a 3rd confirmed case of PML was announced by the 2 companies. the 3rd patient was diagnosed with pml post-mortem (he died in 2003). the 3rd pml case had been on tysabri monotherapy in contrast to the first 2 pml cases who were on combination therapy (avonex+tysabri).
the significance of patient 3 is that s/he was discovered to have been on other immunosuppressive drugs.

[EDIT: patient 3 apparently had a history of treatments with steroids, remicade, and imuran (used in patients of organ transplants to lower the immune response so that the body does not reject the organ, ie an IMMUNOSUPPRESSANT). please refer to ThisIsMs for a full discussion on the effects of each drug]

the key fact to keep in mind is that PML is already known to arise in immunosuppressed patients. since there have been no confirmed cases in tysabri monotherapy (cases 4 and 5 are unconfirmed), it can be speculated that combo therapy could be the culprit.

ELAN AGM
elan's AGM, which took place at the end of may, was very upbeat. kelly martin stated that it was a matter of "when, not if" tysabri would find a path back to ms patients. i listened to this AGM webcast live and believe me, it inspired a lot of confidence and excitement in my investment w/ elan. if you're new to elan, you should definitely listen in to the recorded AGM.
the important thing to get from the AGM is that it was the last time that ELN officially briefed investors on tysabri. outlook on tysabri has been pretty grim lately, but keep in mind that nothing has officially changed. things brings us to PML "cases" 4 and 5.

PML "CASES" 4 and 5
a few weeks after ELN's successful AGM, and 1 day suspiciously before BIIB's AGM, jeff krasner of the boston globe published a frontpage article which bore the headline: "A fourth death may be tied to Biogen's MS drug." this article alone caused eln stock to plunge from ~$8 to as low as $6.10 the next day. elan's PPS has yet to recover from the damage done by this article. shouldn't someone be held responsible for the losses sustained by shareholders like me?
this "case" has since been rejected by biogen over a CC. in fact, there exists an article saying that the patient referred to as the '4th case' was shopping when she found out that she had "died." considering its been over a month since this report, we can assume that this case is not valid since ELN and BIIB would have been required by the SEC to report it officially. the same can be said about the '5th case' which was brought up by the WSJ (i dont have a subscription to read about it). so, in other words, there have been 3 confirmed cases of PML so far. 2 are combination therapy patients and the other is a monotherapy but immunosuppressed patient.

SALE OF BIOGEN'S OCEANSIDE PLANT
biogen recently sold its drug manufacturing plant in oceanside, ca to genentech. a lot of critics claimed that revealed biogen's lack of faith in tysabri return (oceanside was slated to produce tysabri). however, it is important to point out that biib has also developed a high titer method of manufacturing tysabri, meaning a higher production capacity for the drug. also keep in mind that the oceanside plant was part of biogens acquisition of idec.

SIGNS OF A COMPANY IN TROUBLE?
awhile ago, eln's chairman of the board, kyran [edited for spelling] mclaughlin, purchased 90K shares of eln. investors approved of a sharebuyback program during the AGM. eln posted very positive crohn's trial results a few weeks ago. eln will post breakeven EBITDA even without tysabri in its pipeline. eln has a very promising drug for alzheimers in phase2 that can be a even greater blockbuster drug than tysabri. eln is retiring some of its 1billion dollar debt that is due in 2008. elan's nanotech is starting to take off. the new england journal of medicine is considering the possibility of tysabri's return from a scientific standpoint.
are these signs of a company in trouble? with the exception of NCB and a few other brokerages, everyone seems to love to hate elan. but hey, at least now they're actualy considering that tysabri will back. a few months ago, pretty much every analyst on wallst claimed that there was no chance tysabri would ever return.

WRAP UP
this is a great drug with great potential. for now, all signs point to tysabri monotherapy. as avonex combo therapy becomes singaled out as the culprit, and as avonex goes generic, biogen and elan will have to share tysabri as their sole flagship MS drug. the patient reviews should be finished any week now, and a risk/benefit profile revised by the fda. the speculated timeframes for the completion of reviews range from as early as Q3 2005 to as late as Q1 2006. kelly martin and jim mullen seem to continue to stand by their "end of summer" timeframe.

if you'd like to read about tysabri/pml from a very scientific and medical standpoint, go over to the yahoo msg boards and search for posts by 'pinvestment' and 'neuro1111' [edited for spelling], both very well-versed scientists who graciously share their knowledge on the situation. during the writing of this post, i found the tixx webpage to be very helpful. they have a lot of cool documents on the site too. check out their site if you'd like to continue researching elan.

good luck betting on tysabri. thanks for reading.

DISCLAIMER: I hold long positions in ELN, so my discussion may be inherently biased.

My last post was regarding short-term investments. This time I wanted to touch on a long-term investment I’ve been recently researching, Starbucks. This coffee empire is a company I see as undervalued with an almost unlimited potential for growth. Starbuck’s has had a historic routine of overperformance, yet this has resulted in very high expectations for the company. As a result, investors have constantly come to expect these same sort of results from the company which can sour even perfectly decent reports. Last winter, the stock went as high as $64, but has since dropped due to these expectations. But let’s take a look at the facts. Within the last decade, the stock has split four times and I believe another one is way overdue.

Barring the newest ads regarding their doubleshot espressos and frappucinos, how many of you have actually seen a Starbuck’s ad? They manage to save millions on advertisement, as they choose to invest this money in employee training instead. Listed as a fast-food company by the Fortune 500, they have one of the most comprehensive employee training programs available, creating a high-quality product for their consumers.

As well, the company has an excellent business sense, catering to both their employees and their customers. Currently, there are 6000 stores within the US, but by the year 2010, they hope to expand to over 20,000 stores. People joke about seeing a Starbuck’s on every block, but this is no coincidence. The reason for these expansions is due to the high demand for Starbuck’s coffee. They like to call themselves a “coffee company serving people,” but they do much more.

Real estate is a major part of their success. Oftentimes, Starbucks occupy the busiest corners on the street which allow for maximum exposure. Just by building a store on a corner drives up the price of the property and the immediate area surrounding it. If the owners were to sell just their properties alone, they could probably retire.

The company has partnerships with many large names, such as Albertson’s and Barnes & Nobles, not to mention their own line of products. They have their own ice cream, which has become the top selling brand of coffee ice cream in the nation. They just recently bought their own music company, “Hear Music,” in 1999 so they could package their own cd’s. That music you hear in the store, they own it. Starbuck’s has even launched its own credit card, the Starbuck’s Duetto Visa.

With plans to open on the Nikkei Index, I believe Starbuck’s has a bright future ahead and long-term investors would be well advised to take advantage of this stock. That’s all I’ve got for now so good luck and happy trading.

everyones talking about realestate right now and the media's constant hyping of flipping properties, imho, is helping to artificially inflate the entire sector.

the existance of a realestate bubble is a controversial topic right now. as greenspan continues to raise interest rates and slow the economy, how are americans supposed to afford houses as interest on lending inevitable increases? i was doing some research on realestate related stocks and REITs and i found something interesting.

TOL, Toll Brothers, a builder, claims that the real estate bubble is nonexistant. yet, i came across a piece of interesting info in nasdaq trader's blog. apparently, the management and owners have been selling million dollars of their stocks. i wonder why…. i have no idea whats going to happen b/c i dont understand the sector well enough, but it will be interesting to see what happens.