In my post last night I mentioned my investment theme of high end women’s retailers.  While at my desk at work today in between boring  meetings, I thought of Vera Bradley (VRA) as a profile for tonight’s posts.  For those of you who don’t know, Vera Bradley makes high end women’s handbags and accessories.  The company went public Oct 2010 are around $18/share.  The stock has traded up to the $55 range but recently earnings were good but not good enough for this difficult market and the stock gapped down.  I think VRA is worth a second look however.  The company is growing and its name is synonmous with quality.  VRA’s products appeal to women of all ages.   Here is a technical snapshot:

I try to capture certain themes that are working in the market at a given moment in time.   If you take a look at the economy as it has tried to recover, one area that has thrived is high-end women’s centric retailers such as Coach  ( COH),  Tiffany (TIF), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Ulta Sola (ULTA), and  Lululemon Athletica (LULU).   Rather than post each of these charts, I would encourage readers to do some technical analysis on these stocks invidually.  Notice the relative strength displayed even as the market and economy has taken hits.   LULU and ULTA are just knocking the cover off the ball over the last year.  Both stocks have doubled recently.  Currently,   Williams Sonoma looks reasonably priced.  I think now is a good time to start buying/trading these stocks before the holiday season is upon us and money managers will be rotating funds into these names.  Perhaps some January in the money calls are a way to capitalize on the upcoming holiday season.  It will be here before you know it.

 Glu Mobile Inc. engages in the design, marketing, and sale of mobile games worldwide. Glu Mobile has recently made headlines by inking deal with Pop and EA. Technically, the stock has a nice upward trend. The stock is being accumulated as evidenced by the positive OBV. Mobile games and marketing and part of the the mobile growth environment. GLU stocks action may indicate it will become a contender in the space. Keep in mind, any stocks trading below $10 are speculative in nature, but taking a position in GLU could be profitable for a patient long-term investors or a good trade given its low price and potential daily/weekly return on thousands of shares.

Hello everyone its great to see the website up and running again.  I look forward to sharing some interesting and hopefully profitable trading ideas and analysis to the site.  It looks like Johns and Bret and kicking things off nicely.   Let me do a bit of self-promotion first by asking readers to take a look at my work on www. investopedia. com.   My writing there is much less technical and more education based.

Here is the link to my articles:  http://www.investopedia.com/contributors/default.aspx?id=260

It is good to be back in action!

Nucor Corporation and its subsidiaries engage in the manufacture and sale of steel and steel products in North America. NUE is a tough stock to analyze in my opinion.  It is in one of the leading industries in a horrible market, i.e. steel, yet its broken its longer term uptrend.  The company recently announced another common stock offering for $74/share which may have contributed to recent action and high volume trading.  Trading  purely on technicals, I would say stay away.  Then again this could be a decent pullback in a leading stock. Nothing is absolute, so I think if NUE goes 5-10% lower, I think I would dip my toe in the water and see what shakes out.   What are your thoughts on NUE?

Well, how about shorting cheesecake factory, symbol : CAKE.  The stock has been weakeaned by the overall economic downturn.  Less people going out to eat due to higher gas prices and those chosing to dine out not going upscale restaurants is presumably the theory.  Technically, the stock looks like its going lower.  It recently gapped down on relatively high volume.  The ADX which measures the strength of a trend is very strong.  MACD trending downward.  Overall, I think shorting CAKE may be a decent trade in the coming weeks.  Here is the six month charts:

I could not help but read the comments on Brett’s call for shorting Visa and the other conversations around shorting Apple.  I have to disagree with both calls.  Visa is not a short because everyone thinks its going to be the next Mastercard.  Visa actually makes more money than Mastercard.   I’m wondering what the catalyst would be for Visa to drop?  I really don’t see any.  They reporting GOOD, not great numbers but the bottom line is that you really can’t fight the tape and expect to win.  I would BUY visa on a pullback.   The stock is may reach $100 in 6 months.

 Shorting Apple now may make a little more sense given the move from 120 to where we are today, but  I still contend that that is risky as well.  I think the stock will ramp to $200 until the 3G iPhone release and maybe pause there.   Fundamentally, how could you justify shorting apple now anyhow?  The company is minting money and hoarding crazy amounts of cash.  They have the best tech CEO in the Biz in Steve Jobs and everyone knows its a matter of time before the iPhone becomes the 800 pound gorilla in the cellular business.  Their PC business is taking share from other competitors at an accelerating rate.   I just do not get the short call on Apple, especially not the long-term.    

Last week I mentioned Walters industries.  The stock was in the low 70′s/high 60′s at that time.    Today, the stock broke out on huge volume of over 5 Million shares.  WLT closed out at 81.58 up 8.65 on the day.  The stock has been on fire for the past year.  I’m not one to chase a breakout but I think this might be an exception.  

 Other stocks that look ready to run higher:

United States Steel (X) – New 52 week high today.  Volume however was unimpressive.

Potash ( POT) – Stock resuming uptrend after very brief pause.

Intrepid Potash (IPI) – I took small position today.  I think it moves much higher.  Could be similar to Visa in terms of IPO’s on the mover.

Google (GOOG) – Money managers are coming back into GOOG after blowout quarter.  One year from now GOOG could be making new highs again.  I think anyone who bought GOOG before the last earnings and the subsequent 90 point day may a great decision.  This was a classic risk/reward situation where the risk was certainly worth it.  I don’t think it too late to own the stock.

JPM is my favorite financial bar none.  I’ve liked the stock for several months now, but I took a small position recently.  I like it as a long-term investment.  They have the best CEO in the business in Jamie Dimon.  They basically stole Bear Stearns.  Think about it:  they didn’t even flinch when they paid 5X their original purchase offer for Bear Stearns.   The deal is going to add serious earnings power to JPM.  They also have the least amont of exposure to the subprime mess.   I think this stock can trade in the $60′s next year.  Here is the chart:

I like AMZN at these levels.  I think the stock got sold off after earnings that were really good.  I like the AMZN play going into the second half of the year.  With gas prices expected to reach $4-$5/gallon, I think a lot more people will think twice about going to the malls 10 times or more during the holiday season.  I think AMZN benefits from this.  AMZN is still growing and is a profitable company.  Higher gas prices I think is another reason why AMZN looks good here going into the second half of the year.

Per Yahoo:  Walter Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides a line of products and services, including coal and natural gas, furnace and foundry coke, slag fiber, mortgage financing, and home construction worldwide.   They announce earnings on May 1.   This stock chart is unbelivable for this market.  It has been in an uptrend for awhile.  I keep waiting for a decent pullback but its not happening.  Here is the 1 yr chart.

Just a quick reminder that Mastercard, one of my personal favorites, reports earnings on Monday April 28.

Yeah, I said it. DHI reports earnings on May 6.  They will probably be dismal. Technically, the stock doesn’t look bad.  The stock may have bottomed and is now forming an ascending triangle.  Supposedly,  DHI is a well managed home builder who has the financial strength to manage thru the depression in the housing market.  Anyhow, this stock may need to be watched over the next few weeks.   Here is the 6 month chart:

The beaten-down-tech-stocks-that-might-be-recovering theme continues with EMC.  The stock has been halved recently.  Yes, they are subject to a slowing economy but that isn’t going to last forever.  I think the stock is attractive at these levels.  The company is a leader in its field and continues to make money.  It also holds a large portion of VMW, a former tech IPO darling who has also gotten crushed recently.  The chart looks like EMC will move higher. 

BRCD is a long time tech company that has recently gotten crushed, plain and simple.  The stock was riding high last year when it reported poor numbers and then it was game over.  Well, looks like Broadcom isn’t dead yet.  The stock has broken out of a 6 month downtrend.  The uptrend is strong based upon the ADX reading of 31.   BRCM has had an orderly recovery over the last month.  I have no price target on the stock and have not researched earnings releases, etc. but in terms of the trend, I don’t think it going back to the previous March lows. I think BRCM is a good risk on a pullback.

Yahoo Profile of CVD:  Covance, Inc., a drug development services company, provides early-stage and late-stage product development services primarily to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device industries worldwide.  This stock has been a big winner in the biotech area.  Cramer gave it a buy signal several months ago before the market correction.  Technically the stock may be at a crossroads.  It has challenged the 200 day MA a couple of times now.  The stock I think will remain around current levels until quarterly earnings release on April 28.  I’m not sure if I would take a position prior to earnings but I think the report will give a hint as to whether the stock totally breaks its uptrend or we are just in a correction and the stock moves higher from here.  Here is the chart.