By fous on Feb 04, 2008
DROOY made a solid 17% rally today on increased volume breaking out from an ascending wedge pattern placing this stock on the map for technical analysis breakout buyers. With a forward earnings estimates of .51 and the Gold industry trading at an average earnings multiple of 42.28x earnings, this sets DROOY with an attractive fair value share price among its peers around double from its current pps 11.35 at (42.28 x .51 = 21.56). Although with Gold contracts looking extremely over extended its a tough decision to buy as gold is gonna hit a top sooner or later and endure a correction, which will have an impact on gold stocks, likely similar to the solar correction we are currently witnessing. No plan for buying at the moment but this stock looks bullish and fundamentals are in our favor. Lets feel this one out a little bit longer.
More Info: TheTechnicalTrader.net
By fous on Jan 08, 2008
For some reason i’ve had a mental block on buying any solar stocks when they had been posting huge gains. Well lets just say i’m stupid, but mental block sounds a little better for my own self-esteem though haha
SOLF definitely looks the best to me for having more room to run compared to some of the other big solar names out there on a valuation and forward growth basis. Lets take a look at some of the other forward P/E’s.
FSLR – 134x
STP – 41x
JASO – 36x
TSL – 19.44x
** SOLF – 5x **
So as you can see SOLF on a forward earnings basis is by far the most attractive of any of these solar stocks that have been hot on the prowl lately. Other active solar stocks such as ASTI, CSUN, and AKNS are all projected to be unprofitable in the upcoming year though are moving towards profitability so all are probable to move north along with the industry in general that is growing 30-40% annually.
Here are the analyst estimates from yahoo finance for price targets:
PRICE TARGET SUMMARY
|No. of Brokers:||2|
The Average estimate for the upcoming 2008 projects SOLF to report a staggering 6.88 eps on revenues of $4.33 billion. The industry average for the semiconductors P/E ratio is currently trading at 26x earnings. For SOLF to be fairly valued among its peers we could theoretically say SOLF should be trading around $178.88/share found by multiplying the industries PE by the 6.88 forward earnings estimates. Who knows, given some time we might see it trade that high. But as a short term trader this upward valuation appears to gives us a prime opportunity to capitalize on short term momentous gains.
Technically i was hoping to have a chance to buy some shares on more of a pullback to the 13ema but the momentum in solar and the under valuation of SOLF robbed me of that opportunity as of yet. Today SOLF broke out of its short term pennant continuation pattern suggesting a further move to the upside and continuation of this bullish trend.
When comparing SOLF to its peers it looks like its the cheapest and smartest route to take if your gonna diversify your portfolio within the solar stock industry. I took today opportunity on the technical breakout to purchase some shares at 34.25.
By fous on Jan 08, 2008
HAUP made an impressive move from a technical standpoint today up over 17% on heavily increased volume to breakout from a double bottom pattern in the face of the bear making it appear that this stock is back in favor of the bulls. HAUP reported an increase of 58% in net income over fy 06 with .39 eps excluding tax deference and fully diluted compared to .24eps in 06′. HAUP has been growing at a substantial rate as the previous year of 05′ they reported just .14eps fully diluted. HAUP also stated that they have purchased 142k shares on the open market in the third and fourth quarter as part of a stock repurchase plan.
At the current price of 4.96 HAUP is undervalued as its trading below the Computer Peripherals industry average P/E of 21x earnings while HAUP is at a low 13.4x earnings giving them a current fair value around $8/share. As HAUPS earnings grew 71% in 06′ and 58% in 07′, I think we could conservatively say that HAUP will be able to grow at least 40% into 2008 which would give them an estimated .51 eps for 2008 or a very attractive forward P/E ratio of 9.72x compared to the 21.7x average multiple. Given this information we could give HAUP a future fair value within its industry around $11.06/share which entail upside potential of 123% given todays closing price.
Overall HAUP looks like its in a position to make a continuation on the long side with multiple aspects for speculation including a bullish breakout, positive growing fundamentals, low valuation, and a stock repurchase program. I want to be long HAUP
More Discussion at the HAUP message board at TheTechnicalTrader.net
By fous on Nov 09, 2007
Both these stocks ive traded in the past for great profits and have sold off on the momentum. Earnings are coming up for both of them this week, Monday for CHCG.OB, and Tuesday for CHNG.OB.
CHNG made a huge run where i traded it for over 50% gain and has succumb to the inevitable profit taking tumble only to find support near its ascending trendline after falling 23% in one session on news of a private placement. The stock has rebounded and seems fairly stabilized at the moment
Here is my initial analysis of CHNG from when i first analyzed it before it made its big run:
CHNG.OB is a small cap company with a current market cap of $99.5m, compared to the Oil & Gas industry’s 2.5b average cap. While its current PS ratio is trading at a higher multiple than the industry’s, the important thing to note is CHNG’s PE ratios, with trading at 13.7x multiple compared to the industry’s 17.3x PE. Even more impressive is their forecasted growth into the future with a one year forward PE of just 3.67x. For the current year, CHNG is expecting to report .39eps and a huge jump to follow in 08? with expectations of 1.12eps, and 1.39eps in 09?. Hypothetically speaking, if CHND continued on average its trading multiple of 13.7x we could expect price per share to be trading in the mid teens in 2008, if the company doesn’t run into any trouble. The financial condition also looks great here, with a high current ratio and no long term debt, making this an attractive growth stock.
I’d be more than happy to re-enter a position here if CHNG can step up to the plate and deliver us some positive results in their earnings call tuesday.
CHCG.OB is another very speculative chinese stock that looks like its on its way to becoming Chinas next electronic retail giant comparable to our Best Buy and Circuit City here in the USA. CHCG is expecting some huge growth going forward with plans to expand to 4000 stores by 2010 worth an estimated $1 billion in annual sales. Technically price has been trading in its bullish ascending channel for quite sometime and had a very bullish breakout which i believed to be a catalyst for a continued move higher though price was hammered down by dilution leading to a tumble back to the ascending support line. Price action has been pretty stagnant until friday when CHCG.OB announced that they would be announcing earnings on Monday which lead to a bullish rally making this stock look ready for a turn around. If CHCG.OB can deliver positive results monday i think it will be a turning point for this bullish stock and the negative sentiment from the dilution will be forgotten.
“CHCG is getting more and more out of the small cap category as its growing here ket. I mean this is a company that sells a lot of stuff, they’re expecting $369m in sales for this year alone, and if i recall correctly they were forecasting a billion in sales by 2010. So looking at its current sales and growth in sales $387m doesn’t look very expensive in my eyes, it doesn’t look dirt cheap, but not excessively expensive. Their P/S ratio currently is trading at 1.56x compared to the industry average of .8x. This is based on the last 4 quarters of sales of $247m and current market cap of $379
P/S = Market cap/Sales = 379m/247m = 1.56x sales
Though the more significant ratio we want to look at is the Price to earnings ratio which CHCG is trading below the industry average with a current PE of 19.34 compared to the industries 25x earnings. So CHCG looks inexpensive from this point of view especially given their steady earnings growth with a forward PE of just 11.34. So basically how we look at that forward PE is this, if price to were remain unchanged from todays price, in 1 year from now the PE ratio would be 11.34x. Which would make CHCG.OB a very attractive undervalued stock given that the industry average is 25x. But thats not likely to happen. So we would expect CHCG to rise along with its rise in earnings possibly to maintain its current conservative earnings multiple of 19x. If that were the case over the course of the next year if CHCG were to report its expected .56 eps then hypothetically CHCG should trade near 10.83. If CHCG’s momentum gained quicker which is highly possible in the result of a chart pattern breakout and began to trade at an earnings multiple comparable to the industries 25x then hypothetically price would trade around:
Eps = .56
PE = 25x
.56 x 25 = $14/share. ”
Will keep those one on close watch monday for positive results and possible re-entry.
By fous on Nov 09, 2007
Development and commercialization of solar energy products and technologies for a wide range of applications including power production and water desalination.
· Offers building-integrated photovoltaic (PV) roofing materials for commercial, industrial, and residential markets. Marketed under the trade name SolarSave®, the product line includes roofing membranes, roofing tiles, custom architectural PV glass, and balance of systems equipment such as inverters, combiners, and accessories
· OEGY also holds an exclusive, worldwide license to a solar thermal technology called SunCone™ CSP (Concentrating Solar Power), which is currently being developed to generate potable water and distributed power
· With the acquisition of WaterEye Corporation in December 2006 , OEGY intends to also develop and commercialize utility monitoring products.
Market Cap: $71m
Shares Outstanding: 92.6m
For those who have followed my trades for some time are probably familiar with this stock as I have already analyzed and traded it previously though was shaken out by the volatility with penny stocks and was forced to sell in order to minimize downside risk. I wish I was still holding after Fridays 42% rally
Open Energy has placed a huge foot in the door with some major companies that will help expand its presence in the solar industry in the future. Being such a small company and the speculative nature of the products OEGY provides I believe this could be a huge hidden gem in the solar sector. I believe that solar tiles in the roofs of residential homes and commercial buildings have a fighting chance at becoming standard for all homes and commercial buildings as the the demand for sustainable energy is increasing heavily. Morgan Stanley estimates the solar industry will grow at a rate of 43% annually through 2010. I really like the idea of Open Energy’s products and believe this stock will not only be a great trade, but a longer term investment as well.
- Partnership with Suntech Solar (nyse: STP) for the manufacture of Solarsave tiles and glass
- Agreement with the largest cement tile manufacture in the us, Eagle Roofing, to distribute products through their sales channels to major developers and roofing contractors nationwide.
Product Descriptions: Source From www.openenergycorp.com
SOLARSAVE® ROOFING TILES
Open Energy’s SOLARSAVE® Roofing Tile is a unique product that enables to maintain the natural look of your property while generating clean, safe, efficient electricity from the sun. SOLARSAVE® Roofing Membranes can be easily installed on residential, commercial, institutional, and industrial structures, making it an ideal solution for your renewable energy project.
Features & Benefits
- Easily installed using Roofing Tile Institute standards
- Robust, weatherproof, fire-rated, fully warranted
- Edge profiles naturally shed water
- Durable low voltage system is safer to install and maintain
- Modular, expandable system can be energy customized
- Snow load capacity over 200 pounds per square foot
- Wind load rating up to 125 mph with clips installed
- Class A Fire rated
- CSA certified; UL1703 listed; Class II 600VDC
- 25-year warranty to produce 80% power output
- Inverter had very high conversion ratio of AC to DC
- Comes in different colors; black, red & brown
SOLARSAVE® ARCHITECTURAL PV GLASS
Open Energy Corporation also designs and manufactures custom PV glass laminates to meet the aesthetic, performance, and structural requirements of architects and design professionals. Sizes, shapes, and design configurations can be built to match virtually any specification available today, allowing for a direct substitution for monolithic, laminated, or insulated glass panels. It is often desirable to achieve translucency in photovoltaic skylight applications. While a standard photovoltaic cell is an opaque 125 mm2 square, our cells can be arranged within a clear glass panel to provide appropriate light levels and shading coefficients. A wide variety of colors, thickness, patterns, and shapes can be produced.
SOLARSAVE® ROOFING MEMBRANES
Open Energy’s SOLARSAVE® Roofing Membrane is a unique product that enables to maintain the natural look of your property while generating clean, safe, efficient electricity from the sun. SOLARSAVE® Roofing Membranes can be easily installed on commercial, institutional, industrial, and residential structures, making it an ideal solution for your renewable energy project.
Features & Benefits
- A weather resistant, fire rated, low maintenance product
- Easily installed by roofers with no demolition or disposal costs
- 20-year warranty covers material and electrical performance
- Highest per foot power output per square foot in the industry
- Captures low light levels 2% to 5% better than glass
- Minimizes power loss from shading, debris, and soiling
- Superior aesthetics as well as performance features
- No structural reinforcement or rack mounting required
- Modular; fully scaleable and easily expandable
Open Energy Receives $4.21 Million Order From SolarPro
Monday July 2, 9:00 am ET
Company’s SolarSave Tiles Will Be Installed in New Residential Development in Central California
SOLANA BEACH, CA–(MARKET WIRE)–Jul 2, 2007 — Open Energy Corp. (OTC BB:OEGY.OB – News), a renewable energy company focused on providing solar solutions to its residential and commercial customers, today announced a $4.21 million dollar purchase order for SolarSave® PV Tiles from SolarPro International, a solar integrator based in Sacramento, California. Open Energy’s building integrated PV tiles will be installed on approximately 375 new single-family residences in the Placer County development.
Open Energy Receives $972,000 Purchase Order From Premier Power for SolarSave(R) Roofing Membrane System
Thursday June 7, 9:00 am ET
Project Slated for Luxury Destination Resort in Napa Valley
SOLANA BEACH, CA–(MARKET WIRE)–Jun 7, 2007 — Open Energy Corp. (OTC BB:OEGY.OB – News) today announced that it has received a purchase order from Premiere Power Renewable Energy, Inc., for a photovoltaic roof valued at $972,000 for installation on the new Bardessono Inn in Napa Valley, California. The property is being built by MTM Management, LLC, one of the leading developers of premier destination resorts in North America.
Interview With the CEO:
Open Energy recently had an intriguing interview with Market News First about their company and developments. Can be heard via podcast here: http://files.mn1.com/mp3/OEGY_071307.mp3
The current fundamentals of the company are nothing impressive as they lost $6.2m on sales of $1.7m on their last reported quarter. Though with their innovative products and the demand for sustainable energy into the future, I think OEGY could be a major player in the future. As its products are manufactured through the largest solar company in China and the 3rd largest in the world, OEGY’s manufacturing capacities are nearly infinite and will be able to meet the demand for its products with ease. Open Energy further increased their potential when they teamed up with the largest cement tile roofing company in the US for product distribution. Now they’re distribution chains for their products are being brought to a vast amount of customers and I believe the orders for their products will continue to increase in $ amounts as well as frequency. The company is expecting to release its next quarterly report with the next 1.5 months, In the interview at MN1.com the CEO of OEGY.OB said we could expect to see a significant increase in sales.
Further Analysis can be found at: http://www.gaskinsco.com/linkto-oegy.shtml
This is one of the most bullish stock charts i’ve seen in a while. The amount of volume building up to fridays breakout was quite significant which leads me to believe momentum, along with speculation, could drive this stock much higher from here. OEGY is coming off of its bottom and the momentum and speculation around Sustainable energy is bullish. 1/2 of this trade is going to be for a short term trade, the other 1/2 will probably stick around in my portfolio for a while as i think the long term outlook of this company is very bullish. Preferably i would like to purchase some shares around .70 near the midpoint of Fridays breakout candle. Though due to the momentum, we might have to settle to chase a rally tomorrow instead for a purchase.
Long at .71
By fous on Jul 13, 2007
GlobalSCAPE, a provider of Global Managed File Transfer (MFT) solutions and wide-area file services (WAFS) technologies, delivers a modular approach to solving the enterprise challenges of security, bandwidth, latency and regulatory compliance. GlobalSCAPE’s products securely and efficiently move files such as financial data, medical records, customer files, intellectual property, and other sensitive documents of any size between supply chain partners and branch offices. GlobalSCAPE’s products are used by mid-sized and large enterprise companies, including virtually all of the Fortune 100, leading technology, banking, healthcare, and public sector organizations. Headquartered in San Antonio, TX. GlobalSCAPE is also the developer of CuteFTP, the most popular file transfer protocol application on the market. For more information on our risk-free purchase options, visit www.globalscape.com or call 800-290-5054 (US) or 210-308-8267 (international).
Thanks to Ket for bringing this stock to my attention a couple weeks or so ago. It looked fairly extended at the time so i was hesitant to buy but now after some consolidation and todays breakout it appears we could see a continuation of this bull run.
GSCP has experienced a large amount of growth from 04 – 06 with an 800% increase in net income over the course of those 2 years. Which explains why its share price has increased from a slim .15 cents/share in early 2005 to todays close of 4.19, equating to a staggering 2700% gain. Currently GSCP is trading at a 37.08x earnings multiple compared to the software programming industry average of 27.5x making its current valuation extended. Though given a low foward P/E of just 12.32x, less than 1/2 the industry average, investors and traders aren’t hesitant to continue to drive price action in favor of the bulls.
For the current year 07′ GSCP is expected to report revenues of 20.34m on .3 eps, which entails an 85% increase in revs and 87% increase in eps from the prior year 06′. As we head into 2008′ the high growth story is expected to slow to down to around 16% annual change. Though given the future growth into 07′ and 08′, and GSPC currently just a small company at $72m cap, I think price will continue to trend up especially given the current technical setup. As GSPC expects to report eps of .34 in 2008 we could hypothetically say that GSPC should be trading around $8 – $9/share in the coming months to be fairly valued in the software programming industry. As the industry average P/E is currently trading around 27x earnings and GSPC is expecting .34eps in 2008, .34 x 27 = GSPC should be trading around 9.18/share in the future to be failry valued in software programming industry.
Being that sofware companies usually have very high margins. Their ability to maximize income as revenue increases is staggering. In 2006 GSPC had a profit margin of 95% while their net margin was just 17%. But as revenues increase dramatically(85%), their profit margins will likely remain similar, while net inc margins increase significantly. This is because SGA and RD aren’t increasing nearly as much as revenues. Which in turn the increased revenues go strait to income. Which is why earnings for 07′ are increasing 87% when revenues increased 85%. As revenues grow in the future, the majority of the increase in revs will go strait into net income.
Recent Headlines of significance:
-Synteras Partners with GlobalSCAPE to Provide Secure Data Management Solutions to Enterprise and Government Customers
“The partnership with GlobalSCAPE increases our ability to offer our government and commercial clients a proven and scalable solution to assure individual and enterprise information is secured, safe and retrievable on a 24/7 basis,” stated Brad Fugitt, President of Synteras. “In addition, our partnership will allow clients the ability to hire one team to address the challenges of compliance with HSPD-20 and similar government and Federal mandates.”
-GlobalSCAPE Boosts Security, Workflow Integration, and Administrative Capabilities with Introduction of Enhanced File Transfer Server 5.0
-GlobalSCAPE Announces $3,000,000 Stock Buyback
Looking at the 3 year weekly chart GSPC looks extremely bullish as price first broke out of its descending wedge pattern on heavy volume. Since then it has consolidated and now has broken out to its all time high close as we are in midweek.
Looking at the shorter term chart GSPC has had a huge momentum run from a low near $2/share to over $4/share as of todays closing price. Price formed a small symmetrical triangle pattern which had an upside breakout today on above average volume confirmation suggesting a continuation north. Currently price is down to around 4.12 AH, i would like to pick up some shares near the midpoint of todays candle and breakout point around $4/share.
Over all this looks like a great stock to speculate on as its technical setup looking at the longer term weekly chart is extremely bullish. Along with a strong fundamental backing to supply buyers along the run.
Portfolio Manager of TheTechnicalTrader.net
By fous on Jun 27, 2007
China Natural Gas, Inc.
China Natural Gas, Inc., (“CHNG”), is the first China-based natural gas company publicly traded in the US. It currently owns and operates a 120 kilometer long compressed natural gas pipeline in Xi’an, China, a fast growing Chinese city supported by a population of approximately eight million and is the “gateway” to the broad Western regions of China. CHNG has three profitable business segments: end user delivery of natural gas services to residential, commercial and industrial customers; wholesale natural gas to retail natural gas filling stations; and retail natural gas at company-owned natural gas filling stations. The city of Xi’an has approximately 20,000 Taxis, 3,000 buses and 2,000 special purpose vehicles that are powered by compressed natural gas.
I’m quite certain ive posted CHNG.OB in bull mode several times though for some odd reason never went futher than looking at the chart and saying to myself , “hmmnn interesting, i’ll add it to bull mode”. I’m regretting it now as this stock looks very attractive and good money could have already been made.
CHNG.OB is a small cap company with a current market cap of $99.5m compared to the Oil & Gas industries 2.5b average cap. While its current PS ratio is trading at a higher multiple than the industries the important thing to note is CHNG’s PE ratios with trading at 13.7x multiple compared to the industries 17.3x PE. Even more impressive is there foretasted growth into the future with a 1 year forward PE of just 3.67x. For the current year CHNG is expecting to report .39eps and a huge jump to follow in 08′ with expectations of 1.12eps, 1.39 in 09′. Hypothetically speaking if CHND continued on average its trading multiple of 13.7x we could expect price per share to be trading in the mid teens in 2008′ given the company doesn’t run into any trouble. The financial condition also looks great here with a high current ratio and no long term debt. Making this an attractive growth stock.
Price made a very bullish breakout from a key resistance point of 3.5 last week, which i will serve as very heavy support if price makes a dip from here. In todays session price continued this rally on above average volume breaking out from a bullish pennant continuation pattern. This chart is very bullish and volume has been fairly consistent in 2007.
long term chart:
short term chart:
I really wish i would have dug into this company back when it was trading in the 2′s and not now that it just breached $4/share today. But still at this price this stock looks very attractive in my book and i think it should continue to trend higher given its fundamentals and bullish technicals. Although, given that price has recently made a very strong 50% rally in a short amount of time its possible that we could see some profit taking, maybe even back to 3.50 support, which would be a bargain for these shares. So for now i will only fill a 1/2 position and look to buy the second 1/2 on a dip if i can.
By fous on Jun 26, 2007
Regardless of this order for $23m order for pure magnesium CHND.OB’s fundamentals are highly undervalued at its current trading price and think around $6/share would be more fairly valued. Let me quote myself from my prior analysis:
“Looking forward CHND gave 2007 full year guidance of $120m in revenues, recently raised from $100m. And Net income of $6m raised from $5m. Now looking at the forward ratios CHND looks very cheap at its current levels with much room to run into the future in light of catching up with its growth.
At todays closing price 3.50 CHND is a very small company at $46m with a low float of just $13.2m O/S giving CHND the ability to become very volatile. At just $46m market cap CHND is expecting almost 3 times this amount in revenues for 2007 giving it a very attractive forward price to sales ratio of .38.
The forward P/E of CHND.OB looks very attractive as well,given that CHND doesn’t issue more shares through dilution, they are expecting to have .45eps for full year 2007 placing their forward Price to earnings ratio at a low 7.77 making CHND look very cheap from this perspective being that the management services industry average P/E ratio is 344% higher at 34.5x earnings”
CHND is trading way below the industry averages and fundamentals are looking great as well looking into its future growth as a stock and company. Unfortunately the bearish activity after i made my first purchase forced me to cut my losses short to minimize the damages.
Though now after the announcement of this $23m contract through CHND.OB’s subsidiary’s a considerable amount of volume has came in giving CHND a solid rally which lead to an intra day breakout on the 60 minute chart. I’m thinking that this stock might just require some patience as its under the radar and its fundamental valuation is not known to the general public. I really don’t see CHND trading below $3/share any time soon again and in the long run it should breach the $4 mark and possibly head towards $6/share.
The last 3 sessions with sequential growth in volume makes me feel that the bulls might be back on this block, I’m willing to bet on it and buy some shares and let the fundamental facts pay due.
Portfolio Manager of TheTechnicalTrader.net
By fous on Jun 25, 2007
WGDF.OB aka Western Goldfields is a Gold mining company that popped up on my technical filter today with quite an impressive symmetrical chart pattern breakout on todays close. Looking forward the company has very strong estimates for 08′ and beyond from there Mesquite mine with an estimated 160k – 170k in annual production of gold from the period of 2008 – 2015.
So given lets say an a conservative average gold price of $650. This would mean gold price doesn’t change from todays price.
at 170k ounces/year thats $110.5m annual gold sales and they’re expecting cost of sales to be $350/ounce of gold mined totaling $59.5m in COGS resulting in an attractive 46% gross margin.
WGDF’s financial condition is also very impressive as well. Currently they’re sitting on $57.1m in cash with an astonishing 21.8 current ratio compared to the gold and silver industries 2.9! As well WGDF has no long term debt they’re in a very good position to move forward with production and growth in the coming years.
Currently WGDF shows no profits or significant sales. Analysts are expecting EPS of .14 for 2008 with a high estimate of .39 on sales of 74.28m or 4457% growth from this years estimate. The Gold and Silver industry PE is currently trading at 28.5x earnings. While WGDF currently doesn’t have a postive PE ratio they have a very attractive forward PE of just 10.45x earnings meaning that price will like continue its bullish trend to become fairly valued in the industry in the future.
Today WGDF released a very positive PR announcing production ahead of schedule by 3 months which gave way to todays bullish breakout.
[quote]Western Goldfields Announces Production Ahead of Schedule by Three Months
Monday June 18, 1:31 pm ET
- Full production pulled forward to January 2008
- Prestrip mining commenced June 2007
TORONTO, June 18 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ – Western Goldfields, Inc. (TSX:WGI, OTC BB:WGDF.OB) today announced that it has pulled forward gold production at its Mesquite Mine to January 2008, three months ahead of schedule. Estimated average annual production is 160,000 – 170,000 ounces of gold for the period 2008 – 2015. In addition, the Company announced that its prestrip mining commenced in June 2007. All currency amounts are in U.S. dollars.
“This acceleration of production is very exciting news for our shareholders,” said Randall Oliphant, Chairman. “This marks an important step in the transformation of Western Goldfields from a developer to a producer – only 22 months after our management team joined the Company. The completion of our financing and entering into the forward sales program, announced on June 14th, allows us to move forward rapidly with mining and construction. We expect to realize cash flow from operations much sooner, with a full year of gold production in 2008, which should translate into enhanced shareholder value.”
Three of fourteen Terex 205-ton haul trucks have arrived at the Mesquite Mine site, along with two O&K RH 340, 45 cubic yard hydraulic shovels. The shovels are fully commissioned and one is currently operating. All other critical mining equipment has been assembled and commissioned. These steps will allow the Mesquite Mine to ramp up production quickly as additional haul trucks are delivered, commissioned and put into service.
Under this new production schedule, estimated average cost of sales has increased from $335 per ounce to $350 per ounce for the first eight years of the mine plan. This increase is due to the operating costs associated with the purchase of one additional truck, the escalating cost of employment insurance in California, and enhanced employee benefits.
Initial capital costs are estimated at $108.6 million, unchanged from previously announced estimates. The mine life was lengthened to 12 years from an initial 9-1/2 years due to the increase in gold reserves. As a result, life-of-mine capital costs have increased marginally from $112.5 million to $114.9 million, due to increased estimates for fleet rebuild costs over the extended life of the mine.[/quote]
I think this is a very attractive stock and we should be able to pull out a decent gain on this trade, i bought at 2.29
Portfolio Manager of TheTechnicalTrader.net
By fous on Jun 20, 2007
SDTH Stock Profile:
ShengdaTech is engaged in the business of manufacturing, marketing and selling a variety of nano-precipitated calcium carbonate (”NPCC”) products and coal-based chemicals for use in various applications. The Company converts limestone into NPCC using its proprietary technology. The unique chemical and physical attributes make NPCC a valuable ingredient in tires, paints, polyvinyl chloride (”PVC”) building materials and other products. NPCC enhances the durability of many products by increased strength, heat resistance, and dimension stabilization. The Company is also engaged in the manufacture and sale of coal-based chemical products namely ammonium bicarbonate, liquid ammonia, melamine and methanol. The Company markets and sells its coal-based products mainly for chemical fertilizers and raw materials in the production of organic and inorganic chemical products, including formaldehyde and pesticides.
SDTH had a very strong first year reporting as a publicly traded company posting some impressive earnings. For fy 2006 they posted revenues of $72.6m with a 28% gross margin and minimal operating costs at just $3.9m SGA leaving them with net income of $17.5m on the year. SDTH’s financial condition was quite impressive as well when i looked over there balance sheet. Currently they’re sitting on $34.6m in cash with an outstanding current ratio of 4.38, 2 is optimal, 4.38 is very nice to see. On top of that SDTH is currently subject to zero long term debt so there financial condition is very healthy and look more that set to move forward with growth.
SDTH looks very undervalued when comparing them to the industry averages. SDTH is trading at just 15.17x earnings compared to the Chemical Manufacturing average of 31.8x so we could expect SDTH’s price action to continue its bullish trend as it attracts more investors, especially since its currently holding a very low forward PE of just 9.53x earnings. The price to sales ratio is slightly above the industries with SDTH at 3.83x and the avg of 2.5x. But the P/S ratio is usually of not that much significance. I like to see it below but with SDTH’s PE ratios so undervalued its not of much importance. As i said before the current ratio of 4.38 is very attractive compared to the avg 2.6.
SDTH reported very strong fiscal 07′ guidance on Friday which gave way to a very bullish technical breakout on heavy trading and lead me to further analysis of the company.
Report as follows:
For fiscal year 2007, ShengdaTech expects to generate revenue of $96 – $98 million, up 32.2% to 35.0% from $72.6 million in 2006. The Company expects net income to increase approximately 31.2% to 36.9% to $23.0 – $24.4 million for earnings per share of $0.43 to $0.45. The Company also expects margins to improve throughout the rest of the year as its higher margin NPCC segment contributes a greater percentage of overall revenue.
”We are very pleased with the progress we have made to date and expect continued growth going forward,” commented Mr. Xiangzhi Chen, CEO of ShengdaTech. ”We continue to operate at full capacity in both of our factories and will have an additional 40,000 metric tons of NPCC capacity in Xi’an City online this month. We also expect to increase NPCC capacity by an additional 60,000 metric tons by the end of 2007.”
SDTH had a very bullish breakout last friday after the PR of their fiscal 07′ guidance was released. Sending price up to as high 33% at one point. Though profit taking took over and drug price down to close up 18% on the day with very attractive volume. Although the closure of the day formed an extended upper shadow with some bearish implications the breakout was solid from the ascending triangle neckline, which signifies the likely possibility of a bullish continuation in price especially when considering the fundamentals in conjunction with technicals. I’m still yet to fill a position but will look to buy in tomorrows session as i think the bullish trend will continue here.
Cameron Fous: Portfolio Manager of TheTechnicalTrader.net
By fous on Jun 12, 2007
CSUH is an awesome company i came across this evening. Well let me rephrase that, they have an awesome product which i think will turn them into a great company. Celsius is a new alternative energy drink that increases your metabolism on average by 12% for a period of 3 hours+. So while everyone was amazed when the zero calorie energy drinks and sodas came out. Now we have Celsius which will result in negative Calories! Celsius is a healthy alternative to the ever so popular consumed unhealthy high calorie and sugary energy drinks and sodas. Let me tell you why i’m a believer in this product
I found this on a blog about CSUH. Kind of discouraging when you look at the facts. But i mean, if this has similar results just for boosts in energy similar to beverages like rockstar, monster, and redbull which have grown into a huge industry,i myself can’t go a day without one, i probably spend close to 50- 60 $$/month on energy drinks, then the fact that they produce the same energizing results, rumor has it they even taste better, and on top of that they burn calories, even if it doesn’t turn out to be a significant amount but its better than nothing. In this guys analysis he compares the $ cost /pound of weight lost from calorie expenditure as a result of the beverage, which turns out to be quite expensive for a small hypothetical amount of weight loss, but thats not the point. If you consider the alternative , drinking a regular energy drink or unhealthy soft drink, the differences are quite significant. Just looking at an energy drink can i have here in front of me contains a whopping 260 calories while Celsius is just 10 total.
This guys missing the point though. I don’t see Celsius as a product thats a new miracle weight loss supplement as hes analyzing it as. Because its not, and Celsius isn’t marketing it as that either. Its simply a healthy alternative to unhealthy and high calorie energy drinks and soft drinks that the public so commonly consumes. To sum it up, i think that guys an idiot and not looking at this from the right perspective .
So lets look at it from the right perspective. Comparing total calories consumed in a year if consumed 1 drink/day:
Celsius : 365 x 10 calories = 3,650 calories consumed/year
regular energy drink: 365 x 260 = 94,120 consumed per year
so by his calculations it appears hes saying around 4000 calories = 1.1lbs
so you could drink regular energy drinks and consume 94,120 calories representing a gain of 25.88 lbs hypothetically without regular exercise in a year. Or you could consume Celsius and consume just 3,650 calories in one year while burning an additional 3,923, resenting a loss of 1.1 lbs. So when looking at Celsius alone by itself theres’ not much significance in weight loss. Though when comparing it to an alternative energy drink there is a huge difference, a whole 24.78 lb difference from your tubby bum.
I myself will admit that I’m a big health freak and am very conscious of what i put in my body and workout 5-6 days/ week for 1.5 hours at the gym. Drinking a rockstar or monster energy drink “EVERY” time before i go to the gym so i can have an energized optimal workout. I’m a firm believer in this product and think that Celsius is a perfect alternative to my daily 260 calorie rockstar drink before heading to the gym. This way maybe i won’t have to spend so much time trying to keep these abs in tact lol. 260 (my preworkout energy drink) calories to burn isn’t just brushing the dust off your shoulders. I recall riding the stationary bike earlier today and around 20 minutes in was only around 260 calories burnt. Maybe 20 minutes doesn’t sound very long, but i’ll run 3 miles in just over 20 minutes, and I’ll tell yah you’ll be sweating your heiny off after running 3 miles.
– Selected 3 years in a row for industry awards as Best New Product by
leading beverage magazines and associations
– Featured on television newscasts in virtually every major market and
seen by more than 40 million viewers with an estimated ad-value of
greater than $8 million
– Rated the #1 Consumer Food and Beverage Trend for 2007 by the
prestigious industry analyst Datamonitor
– Celsius, Inc., Names Beverage Guru Erin Heit as Marketing Vice President
Wednesday April 25, 7:30 am ET
Experience at Fuze and Glaceau Vitaminwater will be instrumental to Celsius, Inc. team for future growth
– MMNNNN look at all these healthy attributes
Celsius delivers the unique calorie burning capabilities that today’s consumers want. Celsius is clinically proven to work by raising metabolism 12% over a three hour period. Powered by Green Tea with EGCG, ginger, caffeine, and nutrients, Celsius provides and extended increase in energy. Celsius contains no carbs, no sugar, no chemical preservatives, and no high fructose corn syrup.
Celsius gets celebrity status
Celsius(R) ‘The’ Calorie Burning Beverage, Mingles with the Stars on NBC’s EXTRA!
Friday June 8, 2:36 pm ET
Over 3 Million Viewers Tuned In To The ‘Gimme, Gimme’ Segment And Were Turned On To Celsius, One Of The Must Have Items For Consumers
DELRAY BEACH, Fla., June 8 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ — Celsius Holdings, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: CSUH.OB – News) is proud to see its calorie burning, category creating brand, Celsius®, mingling with some of the biggest names in Hollywood. Oprah, Katie Cruise, the crew from Oceans 13, Princess Diana, Paris Hilton, and Celsius all appeared on EXTRA! one of the country’s most watched celebrity news program, on Tuesday, June 5, 2007. Celsius, a great tasting, calorie burning beverage, was highlighted as a hot new must have for consumers, on the “Gimme, Gimme” segment of the show. According to Cision US, Inc, a media evaluation service, the globally known entertainment news show has an estimated audience number of 3,281,536 million.
Of course current fundamentals are grim but i believe that speculation about the future growth and potential of this product to stake a large claim in the energy drink beverage industry. This stock was way under the radar before though now has celebrity status as it appeared on nbc’s EXTRA! on friday as the next must have hot product i believe this is the video of it appearing on extra though of course its the only video on there thats not functioning for me ………. heres the link:
Celsius is also linked on nbc’s Extra! website here: http://extratv.warnerbros.com/extrainfo.html
Summing things up i think that Celsius has an awesome product and huge potential for growth and a large spot in the beverage industry as it gains momentum in the market place. Technically this stock is coming off of its all time lows since its IPO in January of this year.
(sunday night’s analysis) Price broke out of a descending channel with huge volume and a solid 28% single day rally. I think this could be the spark of a new bull trend in the making.
Monday night: Todays move is extremely bullish and look at the volume here. The momentum is very strong and speculation is proving itself worthy of the investment community for Celsius. My gut feeling was that we would see some weakness and people possibly fading the gap. Though the volume amount was so big in the in the first hour of trading and price bounced off of its support at 1.38.
On the intraday breakout i purchased a 1/2 position at 1.53 as the momentum here and volume is huge, i could see this making a quick run to $3 possibly over the short term. Guess we’ll see, for now i’ll just keep this 1/2 position and evaluate a possible buy on a dip soon.
Portfolio Manager of TheTechnicalTrader.net