Official Tysabri Update

final of what

my final exam (biochemistry)

I’m not sure why you’re trading ELN but it looks to me like you are just assuming a great ammount of risk in the hopes that the massive liquidation of ELN earlier this year was an over-reaction or not based on reality. Maybe I haven’t been paying close enough attention, but I can’t tell if you are trading with an edge or just making a big bet about this drug. The point is, this ELN stuff doesn’t look like a sustainable or repeatable strategy, so it probably isn’t a good idea. Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for taking advantage of every opportunity to make money, but you cannot expect to keep windfall profits from go-for-broke bets because the money was made in unfavorable conditions, and only reinforces very bad or a lack of trading principals.

I want to apologize if it seemed like I was implying that you were making bad trades in my post above because thats not what I think. What I was intending to address is the irrelevancy of the Tysabri news you are talking quite a bit about and the emotional rollercoaster it sounds like you’re on. More specifically, they could announce Tysabri cures all cancers and you might even know about it in advance but it doesn’t mean a thing because you don’t know how the market will react. Your focus should be on managing your exposure depending on how the market reacts before, during, and after. The rest is just noise in my opinion.

hi jon,
gekko at knighttrader has also warned me about gambling so hard on ELN. i admit, its risky stock, but only in the short term. i sold off all of my “buy and hold” shares from march today because im not patient enough to wait this stock out, and a good exit opportunity has finally come up.

therfore, i trade the dips and gamble options on the rumors because i dont have the patience to wait for tysabri to come back. i do, however, strongly believe that tysabri WILL be back. i’ve studied the science, read the research papers, listened to every conference call, and in my opinion, the risk of “bad news” from this point forward is limited. i even summed up my theories in a long article a few weeks ago (Betting On Tysabri), all of which were confirmed today in the conference call.

also, Tysabri news is really the main focus of this stock. at the moment, TA and fundamentals are meaningless because ELN is a news driven stock. with the exception of NCB and Goodbody’s stockbrokers, the idiot analysts on wallstreet have been trashing this stock since february, making investors scared of buying this stock. in fact, if you look at the nasdaq institutional holdings summary, you’ll see that merril lynch opened a 5 million share position ELN last month, even while their analyst erica whittaker is advising all their clients to dump ELN. its this dirty, almost criminal, manipulation of ELN thats causing this SHORT TERM roller coaster ride. analysts have been saying sell sell sell, while eln has run up from $3 to $9. asshole analysts.

i can guarantee you though, that “when” tysabri returns, this stock will pay off nicely.

Tysabri is ELNs future. at the moment, tysabri’s controversial return will either make or break the stock, and i’m just betting that it will.

my shoddy strategy (to try to limit risk) lately has just been to flip calls on the dips and play calls on rumored dates. youre right though, its a really crappy trading style.

anyway, just wanted to say thanks for the advice. i’ll definitely keep it in mind as i continue gambling in the months to come.

JWU,

Thanks for your well thought out reply to my comments. I think you are making a big mistake if you think that the technicals don’t matter. Remember that there are other parties who know the news well before you do, and this means that big money will position itself accordingly. Not even insider money is immune from wild-card events like drug-related accidents, but remember that stocks can go up on bad news and down on good news. Anyway, congratulations on your recent win in ELN, you deserve it because you worked for it.

Don’t be afraid to pursue a strategy because other people aren’t doing it. If you’ve found a niche that stacks the odds in your favor, then build on it and work it. Don’t let other people who don’t really know what you’re doing discourage you. If you really have faith in your strategy because you have an edge, then lets rephrase “… as I continue gambling in the months to come” to “… as I continue speculating in the decades to come” because that is how the house wins: exploiting an edge statistically, over time. Be the house =)

-Jon

Stock Trading…

What trading exchange have you found the most success in? be it penny stocks or the NYSE, futures etc…?…